NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Michael Penix Jr. QB

ATL vs CHI · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

30.5 Pass Att O -113U -112

Hit rate · All 47%8/17 Odds imply 50.1% Over

Season avg: 25.7
Graph avg: 26.9
Graph median: 28.01–42
Over the close: 50%6/12

2026 per game

Pass Yds239.7▲+19.4

Att25.7▼-5.0

Cmp%67.5%▲+7.4

Pass TD1.0+0.0

INT0.3+0.0

Rush Yds1.3▼-6.4

Snaps63.0▲+1.6

Snap %98.3%▲+5.1

30.5

2024

1

Oct 20
4

Nov 17
27

Dec 22
35

Dec 29
38

Jan 05
2025

42

Sep 07
21

Sep 14
36

Sep 21
26

Sep 28
32

Oct 13
38

Oct 19
37

Nov 02
28

Nov 09
16

Nov 16
2026

25

Sep 24
20

Oct 05
32

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 30.5

Home 50% 4/8 · avg 26.8
Away 44% 4/9 · avg 27.1
vs CHI No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 28.5 47% 8/17
O 29.5 47% 8/17
O 30.5 Today 47% 8/17
O 31.5 47% 8/17
O 32.5 35% 6/17

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds255.6#6
Yds/Att8.1#4
Cmp%61.5%#25
Pass TD1.5#16
Pass Att31.7#17

QBs vs CHI · 2026

Each main QB who faced CHI this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-9.4

Avg diff %-27%

Beat their average0% (0/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jordan Love	31	38.5	-19%
Oct 04	Geno Smith	15	33.0	-55%
Sep 28	Jalen Hurts	25	32.2	-22%
Sep 13	Bryce Young	37	41.7	-11%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ATL offense

ATL offense: Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.1 yds	3%11.8 yds	9%11.8 yds
Short	33%6.4 yds	19%6.6 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of ATL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%12.1 yds#12	4%21.1 yds#5	9%15.2 yds#5
Short	31%4.9 yds#30	19%8.5 yds#6	30%6.2 yds#6

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%16.1 yds	3%12.4 yds	10%9.4 yds
Short	37%5.7 yds	10%7.2 yds	30%6.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of ATL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Drake London WR	5	7.2	36	28.6%
2	Bijan Robinson RB	5	5.0	25	21.0%
3	Jahan Dotson WR	5	3.4	17	13.7%
4	Kyle Pitts TE	5	3.0	15	11.3%
5	Austin Hooper TE	3	2.3	7	8.9%
6	Zachariah Branch WR	5	1.6	8	6.2%
7	Olamide Zaccheaus WR	5	1.4	7	5.7%
8	Charlie Woerner TE	3	1.3	4	4.7%
9	Brian Robinson RB	5	0.8	4	2.9%
10	Chris Blair WR	4	0.8	3	2.4%

Game log · 17 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 30.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs BAL	32	Over	29.5	61 (95%)
2026-10-05	4	@ NO	20	Under	30.5	57 (100%)
2026-09-24	3	@ GB	25	Under	30.5	71 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CAR	16	Under	32.5	41 (62%)
2025-11-09	10	@ IND	28	Under	25.5	63 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ NE	37	Over	32.5	56 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	@ SF	38	Over	36.5	65 (100%)
2025-10-13	6	vs BUF	32	Over	31.5	70 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs WAS	26	Under	30.5	65 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CAR	36	Over	46.5	51 (77%)
2025-09-14	2	@ MIN	21	Under	33.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	vs TB	42	Over	30.5	76 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	vs CAR	38	Over	—	79 (100%)
2024-12-29	17	@ WAS	35	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	vs NYG	27	Under	—	67 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	@ DEN	4	Under	—	13 (22%)
2024-10-20	7	vs SEA	1	Under	—	7 (10%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 30.5Underdog 30.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 4m ago.