NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kirk Cousins QB

LV vs BUF · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

36.5 Pass Att O -125U -102

Hit rate · Last 10 20%2/10 Odds imply 52.4% Over

Season avg: 34.4
Graph avg: 33.3
Graph median: 31.020–52
Over the close: 40%4/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds253.8▲+81.7

Att34.4▲+7.5

Cmp%65.1%▲+3.4

Pass TD2.4▲+1.4

INT0.8▲+0.3

Rush Yds-0.4▼-1.1

Snaps67.0▲+12.7

Snap %96.6%▲+10.5

36.5

2025

30

Dec 07
44

Dec 11
35

Dec 21
20

Dec 29
32

Jan 04
2026

30

Sep 13
29

Sep 20
33

Sep 27
52

Oct 04
28

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 36.5

Home 21% 3/14 · avg 32.5
Away 20% 3/15 · avg 29.3
vs BUF No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 34.5 30% 3/10
O 35.5 20% 2/10
O 36.5 Today 20% 2/10
O 37.5 20% 2/10
O 38.5 20% 2/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs BUF

What BUF allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds229.2#15
Yds/Att6.5#26
Cmp%62.5%#21
Pass TD2.2#3
Pass Att35.5#6

QBs vs BUF · 2026

Each main QB who faced BUF this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+6.0

Avg diff %+18%

Beat their average80% (4/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Matthew Stafford	54	40.5	+33%
Oct 04	Drake Maye	37	28.5	+30%
Sep 27	Justin Herbert	34	27.2	+25%
Sep 17	Jared Goff	38	38.2	-1%
Sep 13	C.J. Stroud	38	36.8	+3%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LV offense

LV offense: Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.5 yds	3%5.3 yds	5%7.0 yds
Short	30%5.6 yds	19%7.0 yds	35%5.8 yds

Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BUF defense

BUF defense: Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.5 yds#14	4%8.1 yds#32	9%9.2 yds#25
Short	30%5.5 yds#22	16%6.5 yds#20	35%5.4 yds#16

Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%11.3 yds	3%5.4 yds	7%7.4 yds
Short	31%6.3 yds	22%7.4 yds	28%6.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of LV targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Brock Bowers TE	3	11.3	34	31.3%
2	Ashton Jeanty RB	5	6.0	30	17.6%
3	Tre Tucker WR	5	5.6	28	16.4%
4	Michael Mayer TE	5	5.0	25	14.3%
5	Jalen Nailor WR	3	3.7	11	12.5%
6	Jack Bech WR	2	3.0	6	10.3%
7	Cody White WR	5	2.8	14	8.0%
8	Malik Benson WR	5	1.6	8	5.0%
9	Ian Thomas TE	3	1.3	4	3.5%
10	Deven Thompkins WR	1	1.0	1	2.8%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 36.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NE	28	Under	34.5	50 (83%)
2026-10-04	4	vs KC	52	Over	33.5	84 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NO	33	Under	31.5	70 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ LAC	29	Under	30.5	63 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs MIA	30	Under	29.5	68 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NO	32	Under	32.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-29	17	vs LA	20	Under	23.5	53 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ ARI	35	Under	35.5	77 (100%)
2025-12-11	15	@ TB	44	Over	37.5	71 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs SEA	30	Under	32.5	64 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 36.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 2m ago.