NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Bo Nix QB

DEN vs ARI · Sun Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET

32.5 Pass Att

Hit rate · All 60%25/42 Odds imply —

Season avg: 31.5
Graph avg: 34.2
Graph median: 33.522–50
Over the close: 65%15/23

2026 per game

Pass Yds174.8▼-59.1

Att31.5▼-5.1

Cmp%60.3%▼-2.6

Pass TD1.0▼-0.6

INT0.5▼-0.2

Rush Yds6.2▼-15.2

Snaps61.2▼-5.9

Snap %99.7%+0.0

32.5

2024

36

Sep 22
25

Sep 29
27

Oct 06
33

Oct 13
26

Oct 17
37

Oct 27
33

Nov 03
30

Nov 10
33

Nov 17
42

Nov 24
35

Dec 02
33

Dec 15
40

Dec 19
31

Dec 28
29

Jan 05
22

Jan 12
2025

40

Sep 07
30

Sep 14
25

Sep 21
42

Sep 29
39

Oct 05
30

Oct 12
50

Oct 19
29

Oct 26
37

Nov 02
28

Nov 06
37

Nov 16
45

Nov 30
38

Dec 07
34

Dec 14
47

Dec 21
38

Dec 25
23

Jan 04
46

Jan 17
2026

28

Sep 14
31

Sep 20
34

Sep 27
42

Oct 04
27

Oct 11
27

Oct 15
?

Oct 25

Showing the latest 40 of 42 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 32.5

Home 67% 14/21 · avg 34.8
Away 52% 11/21 · avg 33.6
vs ARI No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 30.5 64% 27/42
O 31.5 60% 25/42
O 32.5 Today 60% 25/42
O 33.5 50% 21/42
O 34.5 45% 19/42

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds252.9#6
Yds/Att8.1#2
Cmp%66.7%#4
Pass TD2.7#1
Pass Att31.2#24

QBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main QB who faced ARI this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-5.8

Avg diff %-15%

Beat their average0% (0/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Matthew Stafford	33	43.2	-24%
Oct 11	Jared Goff	30	40.2	-25%
Oct 04	Jameis Winston	29	32.2	-10%
Sep 27	Brock Purdy	27	28.8	-6%
Sep 13	Justin Herbert	27	30.6	-12%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.5 yds	2%9.8 yds	5%8.0 yds
Short	36%5.3 yds	10%3.8 yds	40%4.2 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.4 yds#10	3%14.2 yds#18	10%10.3 yds#19
Short	30%6.3 yds#8	19%9.0 yds#2	32%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.7 yds	1%12.2 yds	6%5.5 yds
Short	36%5.5 yds	11%3.6 yds	38%4.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaylen Waddle WR	6	6.3	38	22.6%
2	RJ Harvey RB	5	5.2	26	17.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	6	4.7	28	16.1%
4	Evan Engram TE	6	3.2	19	11.3%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Marvin Mims Jr. WR	4	2.2	9	8.4%
7	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
8	Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR	2	1.5	3	6.3%
9	J.K. Dobbins RB	6	1.5	9	5.6%
10	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%

Game log · 42 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 32.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	vs SEA	27	Under	34.5	60 (100%)
2026-10-11	5	@ LAC	27	Under	32.5	62 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	42	Over	35.5	65 (98%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	34	Over	33.5	67 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs JAX	31	Under	33.5	62 (100%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	28	Under	34.5	51 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs BUF	46	Over	33.5	72 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs LAC	23	Under	22.5	59 (100%)
2025-12-25	17	@ KC	38	Over	34.5	72 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs JAX	47	Over	36.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs GB	34	Over	—	68 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ LV	38	Over	31.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ WAS	45	Over	32.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs KC	37	Over	31.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-06	10	vs LV	28	Under	28.5	61 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ HOU	37	Over	32.5	63 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	vs DAL	29	Under	24.5	59 (94%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NYG	50	Over	39.5	81 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NYJ	30	Under	31.5	60 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ PHI	39	Over	33.5	74 (100%)
2025-09-29	4	vs CIN	42	Over	38.5	81 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ LAC	25	Under	28.5	52 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ IND	30	Under	31.5	58 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	vs TEN	40	Over	31.5	76 (100%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	@ BUF	22	Under	—	42 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	vs KC	29	Under	—	65 (88%)
2024-12-28	17	@ CIN	31	Under	—	60 (100%)
2024-12-19	16	@ LAC	40	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs IND	33	Over	—	63 (100%)
2024-12-02	13	vs CLE	35	Over	—	66 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ LV	42	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs ATL	33	Over	—	59 (95%)
2024-11-10	10	@ KC	30	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	@ BAL	33	Over	—	72 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs CAR	37	Over	—	73 (100%)
2024-10-17	7	@ NO	26	Under	—	63 (97%)
2024-10-13	6	vs LAC	33	Over	—	55 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	vs LV	27	Under	—	63 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	@ NYJ	25	Under	—	61 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ TB	36	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	vs PIT	35	Over	—	61 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	@ SEA	42	Over	—	69 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 32.5Underdog 32.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 11m ago.