NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Caleb Williams QB

CHI vs ATL · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

32.5 Pass Att O -101U -126

Hit rate · Last 10 70%7/10 Odds imply 47.4% Over

Season avg: 27.5
Graph avg: 35.3
Graph median: 34.526–48
Over the close: 67%6/9

2026 per game

Pass Yds203.5▼-36.5

Att27.5▼-7.1

Cmp%65.5%▲+8.2

Pass TD1.0▼-0.6

INT0.5▼-0.1

Rush Yds53.5▲+29.9

Snaps69.5▲+1.0

Snap %93.0%▼-6.2

32.5

2025

36

Nov 28
35

Dec 07
28

Dec 14
34

Dec 20
42

Dec 28
33

Jan 04
48

Jan 10
42

Jan 18
2026

29

Sep 13
26

Sep 20
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 32.5

Home 45% 9/20 · avg 32.9
Away 56% 10/18 · avg 34.3
vs ATL No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 30.5 70% 7/10
O 31.5 70% 7/10
O 32.5 Today 70% 7/10
O 33.5 60% 6/10
O 34.5 50% 5/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds256.4#5
Yds/Att6.8#21
Cmp%60.7%#27
Pass TD1.8#7
Pass Att37.7#2

QBs vs ATL · 2026

Each main QB who faced ATL this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+6.7

Avg diff %+20%

Beat their average75% (3/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 05	Tyler Shough	48	39.2	+22%
Sep 24	Jordan Love	53	33.0	+61%
Sep 20	Bryce Young	36	42.0	-14%
Sep 13	Aaron Rodgers	40	36.0	+11%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CHI offense

CHI offense: Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.8 yds	6%12.2 yds	8%6.7 yds
Short	22%5.8 yds	24%6.7 yds	32%5.6 yds

Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%8.8 yds#23	2%18.7 yds#8	10%11.2 yds#15
Short	32%6.2 yds#9	15%5.8 yds#26	30%4.8 yds#26

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%11.1 yds	6%14.3 yds	9%6.9 yds
Short	20%6.2 yds	19%5.2 yds	37%5.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of CHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Luther Burden III WR	5	7.0	35	21.9%
2	Kalif Raymond WR	5	5.4	27	17.7%
3	Rome Odunze WR	5	5.8	29	17.5%
4	Colston Loveland TE	5	4.6	23	14.2%
5	D'Andre Swift RB	5	3.2	16	9.7%
6	Roschon Johnson RB	3	2.7	8	6.9%
7	Cole Kmet TE	5	1.8	9	5.9%
8	Kyle Monangai RB	4	1.2	5	4.4%
9	Sam Roush TE	4	1.2	5	4.0%
10	Jahdae Walker WR	2	1.0	2	3.2%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 32.5	Close	Snaps
2026-09-20	2	vs MIN	26	Under	31.5	64 (86%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CAR	29	Under	32.5	75 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	42	Over	32.5	81 (100%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	48	Over	40.5	78 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	33	Over	31.5	55 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ SF	42	Over	31.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-20	16	vs GB	34	Over	25.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CLE	28	Under	29.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ GB	35	Over	—	70 (100%)
2025-11-28	13	@ PHI	36	Over	32.5	87 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 32.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.