NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Deshaun Watson QB

CLE vs BAL · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

31.5 Pass Att O -111U -115

Hit rate · All 50%6/12 Odds imply 49.6% Over

Season avg: 29.6
Graph avg: 30.3
Graph median: 31.017–45
Over the close: 80%4/5

2026 per game

Pass Yds202.0

Att29.6

Cmp%64.2%

Pass TD1.4

INT0.4

Rush Yds33.4

Snaps62.0

Snap %99.8%

31.5

2024

45

Sep 08
34

Sep 15
37

Sep 22
32

Sep 29
28

Oct 06
23

Oct 13
17

Oct 20
2026

22

Sep 13
30

Sep 20
30

Sep 27
33

Oct 01
33

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 31.5

Home 60% 3/5 · avg 32.4
Away 43% 3/7 · avg 28.9
vs BAL No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 29.5 67% 8/12
O 30.5 50% 6/12
O 31.5 Today 50% 6/12
O 32.5 42% 5/12
O 33.5 25% 3/12

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs BAL

What BAL allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds266.9#2
Yds/Att7.4#11
Cmp%66.9%#5
Pass TD1.0#29
Pass Att36.0#3

QBs vs BAL · 2026

Each main QB who faced BAL this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.5

Avg diff %+3%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Michael Penix Jr.	32	22.5	+42%
Oct 04	Cam Ward	31	31.0	+0%
Sep 27	Dak Prescott	40	38.0	+5%
Sep 20	Tyler Shough	34	42.8	-20%
Sep 13	Daniel Jones	31	36.2	-14%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CLE offense

CLE offense: Share of CLE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%10.9 yds	6%13.1 yds	5%10.6 yds
Short	34%5.3 yds	18%7.6 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of CLE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BAL defense

BAL defense: Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%16.0 yds#3	5%14.3 yds#19	7%17.7 yds#3
Short	31%5.8 yds#16	16%5.8 yds#27	35%5.2 yds#21

Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 5 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%12.2 yds	5%7.9 yds	5%15.3 yds
Short	44%5.8 yds	13%7.9 yds	27%5.1 yds

Last 5 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of CLE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	KC Concepcion WR	5	5.8	29	20.0%
2	Denzel Boston WR	5	5.8	29	19.6%
3	Harold Fannin Jr. TE	5	5.4	27	18.3%
4	Quinshon Judkins RB	5	4.0	20	13.2%
5	Jerry Jeudy WR	4	3.8	15	13.1%
6	Isaiah Bond WR	3	3.0	9	9.4%
7	Raheim Sanders RB	5	2.4	12	8.6%
8	Blake Whiteheart TE	3	1.0	3	3.7%
9	Jaleel McLaughlin RB	3	0.7	2	2.2%
10	Michael Burton FB	2	0.5	1	1.7%

Game log · 12 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 31.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NYJ	33	Over	31.5	68 (100%)
2026-10-01	4	vs PIT	33	Over	29.5	64 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CAR	30	Under	29.5	69 (99%)
2026-09-20	2	@ TB	30	Under	28.5	58 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ JAX	22	Under	30.5	51 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs CIN	17	Under	—	33 (39%)
2024-10-13	6	@ PHI	23	Under	—	56 (98%)
2024-10-06	5	@ WAS	28	Under	—	57 (92%)
2024-09-29	4	@ LV	32	Over	—	59 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	vs NYG	37	Over	—	65 (97%)
2024-09-15	2	@ JAX	34	Over	—	69 (96%)
2024-09-08	1	vs DAL	45	Over	—	76 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 31.5Underdog 31.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.