NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jalen Hurts QB

PHI vs JAX · Sun Oct 11 · 9:30 AM ET

31.5 Pass Att O -121U -106

Hit rate · Last 20 40%8/20 Odds imply 51.6% Over

Season avg: 28.5
Graph avg: 29.0
Graph median: 27.515–40
Over the close: 47%9/19

2026 per game

Pass Yds178.2▼-21.3

Att28.5▼-0.3

Cmp%59.6%▼-4.6

Pass TD1.8▲+0.2

INT0.8▲+0.4

Rush Yds26.2▲+0.7

Snaps59.5▼-1.6

Snap %98.0%▲+0.2

2025

22

Sep 14
32

Sep 21
24

Sep 28
38

Oct 05
33

Oct 09
23

Oct 19
20

Oct 26
26

Nov 10
28

Nov 16
39

Nov 23
34

Nov 28
40

Dec 08
15

Dec 14
30

Dec 20
27

Dec 28
35

Jan 11
2026

25

Sep 13
37

Sep 20
25

Sep 28
27

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 31.5

Home 29% 6/21 · avg 26.8
Away 26% 5/19 · avg 25.9
vs JAX 0% 0/1 · avg 24.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 29.5 45% 9/20
O 30.5 40% 8/20
O 31.5 Today 40% 8/20
O 32.5 35% 7/20
O 33.5 30% 6/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs JAX

What JAX allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds242.7#10
Yds/Att6.9#19
Cmp%65.9%#11
Pass TD0.7#31
Pass Att35.2#4

QBs vs JAX · 2026

Each main QB who faced JAX this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.3

Avg diff %+0%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Joe Burrow	54	34.3	+57%
Sep 27	Drake Maye	25	30.7	-18%
Sep 20	Bo Nix	31	34.7	-11%
Sep 13	Deshaun Watson	22	31.0	-29%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PHI offense

PHI offense: Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%5.3 yds	2%10.1 yds	10%11.3 yds
Short	30%5.7 yds	14%7.1 yds	35%4.5 yds

Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

JAX defense

JAX defense: Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.7 yds#18	3%17.9 yds#9	9%12.1 yds#12
Short	35%6.0 yds#14	13%5.2 yds#29	31%5.3 yds#18

Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.1 yds	3%9.9 yds	10%10.9 yds
Short	30%5.4 yds	15%6.8 yds	34%4.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of PHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DeVonta Smith WR	3	9.0	27	32.5%
2	Dontayvion Wicks WR	4	5.0	20	19.0%
3	Makai Lemon WR	4	3.8	15	15.3%
4	Dallas Goedert TE	2	3.5	7	14.3%
5	Zach Ertz TE	2	3.0	6	12.0%
6	Darius Cooper WR	4	2.5	10	9.2%
7	Saquon Barkley RB	4	1.8	7	6.7%
8	Will Shipley RB	4	1.5	6	5.6%
9	Johnny Mundt TE	3	1.3	4	4.3%
10	Tank Bigsby RB	4	1.0	4	3.5%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 31.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs LA	27	Under	29.5	61 (100%)
2026-09-28	3	@ CHI	25	Under	28.5	46 (92%)
2026-09-20	2	@ TEN	37	Over	27.5	76 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs WAS	25	Under	28.5	55 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs SF	35	Over	27.5	73 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ BUF	27	Under	25.5	54 (100%)
2025-12-20	16	@ WAS	30	Under	31.5	66 (94%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LV	15	Under	27.5	52 (75%)
2025-12-08	14	@ LAC	40	Over	31.5	71 (100%)
2025-11-28	13	vs CHI	34	Over	25.5	54 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	@ DAL	39	Over	27.5	63 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs DET	28	Under	28.5	72 (100%)
2025-11-10	10	@ GB	26	Under	—	63 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	vs NYG	20	Under	27.5	55 (93%)
2025-10-19	7	@ MIN	23	Under	25.5	50 (100%)
2025-10-09	6	@ NYG	33	Over	26.5	57 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DEN	38	Over	26.5	61 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ TB	24	Under	28.5	57 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs LA	32	Over	26.5	67 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ KC	22	Under	22.5	60 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 31.5Underdog 31.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.