NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kirk Cousins QB

LV vs NE · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

33.5 Pass Att O -118U -108

Hit rate · All 32%9/28 Odds imply 51.0% Over

Season avg: 36.0
Graph avg: 30.9
Graph median: 30.07–58
Over the close: 50%6/12

2026 per game

Pass Yds256.5▲+84.4

Att36.0▲+9.1

Cmp%64.6%▲+2.9

Pass TD2.8▲+1.8

INT1.0▲+0.5

Rush Yds-0.5▼-1.2

Snaps71.2▲+17.0

Snap %100.0%▲+13.9

2024

26

Sep 08
29

Sep 16
29

Sep 22
35

Sep 29
58

Oct 03
30

Oct 13
35

Oct 20
29

Oct 27
24

Nov 03
38

Nov 10
27

Nov 17
39

Dec 01
37

Dec 08
17

Dec 16
2025

7

Sep 21
31

Oct 26
14

Nov 16
23

Nov 23
33

Nov 30
30

Dec 07
44

Dec 11
35

Dec 21
20

Dec 29
32

Jan 04
2026

30

Sep 13
29

Sep 20
33

Sep 27
52

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 33.5

Home 36% 5/14 · avg 32.5
Away 29% 4/14 · avg 29.4
vs NE No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 31.5 43% 12/28
O 32.5 39% 11/28
O 33.5 Today 32% 9/28
O 34.5 32% 9/28
O 35.5 21% 6/28

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs NE

What NE allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds181.7#31
Yds/Att5.5#32
Cmp%58.0%#30
Pass TD0.9#29
Pass Att33.1#10

QBs vs NE · 2026

Each main QB who faced NE this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-5.5

Avg diff %-15%

Beat their average75% (3/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Josh Allen	33	28.7	+15%
Sep 27	Trevor Lawrence	29	25.0	+16%
Sep 20	Aaron Rodgers	39	38.0	+3%
Sep 09	Sam Darnold	2	33.5	-94%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LV offense

LV offense: Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.4 yds	3%5.3 yds	6%8.0 yds
Short	28%6.1 yds	19%6.3 yds	36%5.6 yds

Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NE defense

NE defense: Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%4.0 yds#32	4%10.5 yds#28	5%9.4 yds#24
Short	31%5.3 yds#24	17%7.0 yds#16	37%4.2 yds#32

Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.8 yds	3%4.5 yds	8%7.6 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	21%6.6 yds	28%6.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of LV targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Brock Bowers TE	2	12.0	24	33.1%
2	Ashton Jeanty RB	4	6.0	24	17.9%
3	Michael Mayer TE	4	6.0	24	17.2%
4	Tre Tucker WR	4	5.8	23	17.0%
5	Jalen Nailor WR	3	3.7	11	12.5%
6	Jack Bech WR	2	3.0	6	10.3%
7	Cody White WR	4	2.5	10	7.2%
8	Ian Thomas TE	2	1.5	3	3.8%
9	Malik Benson WR	4	1.0	4	3.4%
10	Dareke Young WR	4	0.8	3	1.9%

Game log · 28 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 33.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs KC	52	Over	33.5	84 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NO	33	Under	31.5	70 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ LAC	29	Under	30.5	63 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs MIA	30	Under	29.5	68 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NO	32	Under	32.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-29	17	vs LA	20	Under	23.5	53 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ ARI	35	Over	35.5	77 (100%)
2025-12-11	15	@ TB	44	Over	37.5	71 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs SEA	30	Under	32.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ NYJ	33	Under	28.5	69 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	@ NO	23	Under	30.5	56 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CAR	14	Under	—	25 (38%)
2025-10-26	8	vs MIA	31	Under	25.5	50 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CAR	7	Under	—	15 (23%)
2024-12-16	15	@ LV	17	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	@ MIN	37	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	vs LAC	39	Over	—	81 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	@ DEN	27	Under	—	46 (78%)
2024-11-10	10	@ NO	38	Over	—	78 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	vs DAL	24	Under	—	57 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ TB	29	Under	—	62 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs SEA	35	Over	—	66 (90%)
2024-10-13	6	@ CAR	30	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-10-03	5	vs TB	58	Over	—	87 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	vs NO	35	Over	—	56 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	vs KC	29	Under	—	61 (100%)
2024-09-16	2	@ PHI	29	Under	—	61 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	vs PIT	26	Under	—	56 (100%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.