NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Justin Herbert QB

LAC vs DEN · Sun Oct 11 · 4:05 PM ET

30.5 Pass Att O -103U -124

Hit rate · All 51%20/39 Odds imply 47.8% Over

Season avg: 29.8
Graph avg: 30.7
Graph median: 31.018–55
Over the close: 43%9/21

2026 per game

Pass Yds204.0▼-24.6

Att29.8▼-2.2

Cmp%59.7%▼-6.5

Pass TD1.0▼-0.5

INT1.5▲+0.7

Rush Yds22.0▼-10.6

Snaps65.8▲+0.9

Snap %100.0%▲+3.0

2024

26

Sep 08
20

Sep 15
18

Sep 22
27

Sep 29
34

Oct 13
39

Oct 21
32

Oct 27
27

Nov 03
18

Nov 10
36

Nov 17
36

Nov 25
23

Dec 01
30

Dec 08
33

Dec 15
31

Dec 19
38

Dec 28
36

Jan 05
32

Jan 11
2025

34

Sep 05
27

Sep 15
47

Sep 21
41

Sep 28
29

Oct 05
38

Oct 12
55

Oct 19
25

Oct 23
29

Nov 02
33

Nov 09
18

Nov 16
20

Nov 30
26

Dec 08
29

Dec 14
29

Dec 21
32

Dec 27
31

Jan 11
2026

27

Sep 13
27

Sep 20
34

Sep 27
31

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 30.5

Home 53% 10/19 · avg 31.3
Away 50% 10/20 · avg 30.2
vs DEN 100% 3/3 · avg 37.3

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 28.5 64% 25/39
O 29.5 54% 21/39
O 30.5 Today 51% 20/39
O 31.5 44% 17/39
O 32.5 36% 14/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds210.7#24
Yds/Att6.1#31
Cmp%57.1%#31
Pass TD1.4#18
Pass Att34.3#6

QBs vs DEN · 2026

Each main QB who faced DEN this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+4.8

Avg diff %+14%

Beat their average75% (3/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Brock Purdy	30	27.7	+8%
Sep 27	Matthew Stafford	55	35.7	+54%
Sep 20	Trevor Lawrence	29	25.0	+16%
Sep 14	Patrick Mahomes	27	33.7	-20%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAC offense

LAC offense: Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%12.9 yds	2%13.6 yds	9%6.5 yds
Short	29%6.6 yds	14%5.4 yds	37%4.8 yds

Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%4.4 yds#31	4%8.4 yds#32	8%7.7 yds#28
Short	29%7.6 yds#2	13%6.6 yds#18	36%5.1 yds#23

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%14.3 yds	2%13.6 yds	9%7.0 yds
Short	28%7.3 yds	15%5.3 yds	36%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of LAC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tre Harris WR	4	5.2	21	17.8%
2	Quentin Johnston WR	4	4.8	19	16.5%
3	David Njoku TE	2	4.0	8	15.0%
4	Ladd McConkey WR	4	4.2	17	14.8%
5	Oronde Gadsden II TE	4	3.8	15	12.5%
6	Brenen Thompson WR	1	3.0	3	11.5%
7	Keaton Mitchell RB	4	2.5	10	8.1%
8	Kimani Vidal RB	3	2.0	6	6.3%
9	Charlie Kolar TE	2	1.5	3	5.8%
10	Omarion Hampton RB	4	1.2	5	4.3%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 30.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ SEA	31	Over	30.5	71 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ BUF	34	Over	31.5	69 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs LV	27	Under	29.5	68 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ARI	27	Under	29.5	55 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ NE	31	Over	28.5	60 (100%)
2025-12-27	17	vs HOU	32	Over	30.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DAL	29	Under	29.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ KC	29	Under	30.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-08	14	vs PHI	26	Under	22.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LV	20	Under	20.5	57 (85%)
2025-11-16	11	@ JAX	18	Under	35.5	35 (73%)
2025-11-09	10	vs PIT	33	Over	35.5	73 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ TEN	29	Under	33.5	65 (100%)
2025-10-23	8	vs MIN	25	Under	29.5	73 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs IND	55	Over	50.5	76 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ MIA	38	Over	34.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs WAS	29	Under	32.5	61 (91%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NYG	41	Over	42.5	63 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs DEN	47	Over	46.5	86 (100%)
2025-09-15	2	@ LV	27	Under	33.5	58 (100%)
2025-09-05	1	vs KC	34	Over	32.5	65 (100%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	@ HOU	32	Over	—	56 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	@ LV	36	Over	—	75 (100%)
2024-12-28	17	@ NE	38	Over	—	69 (87%)
2024-12-19	16	vs DEN	31	Over	—	65 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs TB	33	Over	—	51 (98%)
2024-12-08	14	@ KC	30	Under	—	59 (98%)
2024-12-01	13	@ ATL	23	Under	—	46 (100%)
2024-11-25	12	vs BAL	36	Over	—	69 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs CIN	36	Over	—	67 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs TEN	18	Under	—	59 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	@ CLE	27	Under	—	57 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs NO	32	Over	—	66 (100%)
2024-10-21	7	@ ARI	39	Over	—	66 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DEN	34	Over	—	78 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	vs KC	27	Under	—	56 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ PIT	18	Under	—	36 (78%)
2024-09-15	2	@ CAR	20	Under	—	69 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	vs LV	26	Under	—	57 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 30.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 12m ago.