NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

C.J. Stroud QB

HOU vs TEN · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

31.5 Pass Att O -122U -104

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 51.9% Over

Season avg: 37.8
Graph avg: 32.6
Graph median: 31.010–55
Over the close: 26%5/19

2026 per game

Pass Yds285.2▲+66.3

Att37.8▲+6.4

Cmp%61.6%▼-1.0

Pass TD1.2▼-0.1

INT0.0▼-0.8

Rush Yds16.5▲+2.8

Snaps67.0▲+3.8

Snap %100.0%▲+7.7

2025

27

Sep 07
24

Sep 15
38

Sep 21
28

Sep 28
27

Oct 05
49

Oct 20
39

Oct 26
10

Nov 02
35

Nov 30
31

Dec 07
29

Dec 14
35

Dec 21
28

Dec 27
23

Jan 04
32

Jan 12
47

Jan 18
2026

38

Sep 13
55

Sep 20
27

Sep 27
31

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 31.5

Home 58% 11/19 · avg 32.6
Away 45% 9/20 · avg 31.4
vs TEN 33% 1/3 · avg 22.3

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 29.5 55% 11/20
O 30.5 55% 11/20
O 31.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 32.5 40% 8/20
O 33.5 40% 8/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds250.0#6
Yds/Att8.5#2
Cmp%69.4%#3
Pass TD1.7#8
Pass Att29.4#30

QBs vs TEN · 2026

Each main QB who faced TEN this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.8

Avg diff %-5%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Lamar Jackson	20	25.3	-21%
Sep 27	Jameis Winston	22	28.0	-21%
Sep 20	Jalen Hurts	37	25.7	+44%
Sep 13	Geno Smith	24	31.0	-23%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.3 yds	3%23.0 yds	8%8.5 yds
Short	24%4.9 yds	22%9.0 yds	36%5.7 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.7 yds#12	4%24.2 yds#3	8%14.8 yds#5
Short	33%6.5 yds#7	16%9.4 yds#3	32%5.8 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.3 yds	3%23.0 yds	8%8.5 yds
Short	24%5.0 yds	22%9.0 yds	36%5.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	2	9.0	18	28.9%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	4	6.5	26	19.4%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	4	6.8	27	17.3%
4	Jared Wayne WR	3	4.0	12	10.9%
5	Kayshon Boutte WR	4	3.2	13	9.7%
6	Jaylin Noel WR	4	3.0	12	8.7%
7	Foster Moreau TE	4	2.2	9	7.3%
8	Woody Marks RB	4	2.2	9	5.6%
9	David Montgomery RB	4	1.8	7	5.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 31.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DAL	31	Under	31.5	55 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	27	Under	32.5	54 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CIN	55	Over	30.5	80 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BUF	38	Over	31.5	79 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ NE	47	Over	31.5	75 (100%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	@ PIT	32	Over	34.5	68 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs IND	23	Under	30.5	44 (65%)
2025-12-27	17	@ LAC	28	Under	30.5	65 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LV	35	Over	32.5	65 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs ARI	29	Under	31.5	67 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ KC	31	Under	32.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ IND	35	Over	39.5	76 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs DEN	10	Under	33.5	23 (32%)
2025-10-26	8	vs SF	39	Over	42.5	80 (100%)
2025-10-20	7	@ SEA	49	Over	—	76 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BAL	27	Under	30.5	56 (80%)
2025-09-28	4	vs TEN	28	Under	29.5	71 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ JAX	38	Over	31.5	63 (100%)
2025-09-15	2	vs TB	24	Under	32.5	49 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	@ LA	27	Under	28.5	63 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 31.5Underdog 31.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 14m ago.