NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kyler Murray QB

MIN vs NO · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

32.5 Pass Att O -107U -119

Hit rate · Last 20 45%9/20 Odds imply 48.8% Over

Season avg: 23.7
Graph avg: 31.8
Graph median: 32.05–48
Over the close: 25%2/8

2026 per game

Pass Yds144.3▼-48.1

Att23.7▼-8.5

Cmp%63.4%▼-4.9

Pass TD0.3▼-0.9

INT0.7▲+0.1

Rush Yds14.0▼-20.6

Snaps49.3▼-14.3

Snap %72.3%▼-26.5

2024

32

Oct 13
26

Oct 21
36

Oct 27
20

Nov 03
24

Nov 10
37

Nov 24
45

Dec 01
38

Dec 08
30

Dec 15
32

Dec 22
48

Dec 28
35

Jan 05
2025

29

Sep 07
25

Sep 14
35

Sep 21
41

Sep 25
31

Oct 05
2026

5

Sep 13
29

Sep 27
37

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 32.5

Home 36% 5/14 · avg 27.8
Away 46% 5/11 · avg 34.9
vs NO 0% 0/1 · avg 29.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 30.5 60% 12/20
O 31.5 55% 11/20
O 32.5 Today 45% 9/20
O 33.5 45% 9/20
O 34.5 45% 9/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs NO

What NO allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds197.3#29
Yds/Att6.4#24
Cmp%60.6%#23
Pass TD1.2#24
Pass Att30.7#23

QBs vs NO · 2026

Each main QB who faced NO this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.2

Avg diff %+9%

Beat their average33% (1/3)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Sep 27	Kirk Cousins	33	37.0	-11%
Sep 20	Lamar Jackson	31	21.7	+43%
Sep 13	Jared Goff	39	40.7	-4%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIN offense

MIN offense: Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%14.4 yds	2%11.2 yds	8%6.9 yds
Short	26%4.6 yds	18%7.0 yds	35%5.2 yds

Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NO defense

NO defense: Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.7 yds#26	2%16.0 yds#15	7%12.2 yds#10
Short	33%6.3 yds#9	13%6.7 yds#17	37%4.6 yds#29

Throws NO faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 8 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%10.4 yds	3%7.6 yds	7%10.4 yds
Short	32%4.3 yds	19%7.8 yds	31%4.3 yds

Last 8 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Justin Jefferson WR	3	5.7	17	26.2%
2	T.J. Hockenson TE	4	6.5	26	24.5%
3	Jordan Addison WR	4	5.5	22	22.3%
4	Aaron Jones RB	4	3.8	15	13.1%
5	Josh Oliver TE	3	1.7	5	7.6%
6	Tai Felton WR	2	1.5	3	5.5%
7	Jauan Jennings WR	3	1.3	4	5.1%
8	DeeJay Dallas RB	4	0.8	3	3.2%
9	Gavin Bartholomew TE	1	1.0	1	3.0%
10	Myles Price WR	4	0.8	3	2.8%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 32.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs MIA	37	Over	29.5	78 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ TB	29	Under	30.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs GB	5	Under	31.5	11 (17%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TEN	31	Under	31.5	65 (96%)
2025-09-25	4	vs SEA	41	Over	31.5	67 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ SF	35	Over	37.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CAR	25	Under	25.5	54 (98%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NO	29	Under	32.5	66 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	vs SF	35	Over	—	60 (92%)
2024-12-28	17	@ LA	48	Over	—	79 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CAR	32	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs NE	30	Under	—	63 (90%)
2024-12-08	14	vs SEA	38	Over	—	71 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	@ MIN	45	Over	—	82 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ SEA	37	Over	—	58 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NYJ	24	Under	—	52 (88%)
2024-11-03	9	vs CHI	20	Under	—	55 (95%)
2024-10-27	8	@ MIA	36	Over	—	66 (100%)
2024-10-21	7	vs LAC	26	Under	—	54 (95%)
2024-10-13	6	@ GB	32	Under	—	58 (100%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.