NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Aaron Rodgers QB

PIT vs IND · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

34.5 Pass Att O -136U +102

Hit rate · All 47%18/38 Odds imply 53.8% Over

Season avg: 38.2
Graph avg: 33.4
Graph median: 34.015–54
Over the close: 53%8/15

2026 per game

Pass Yds249.8▲+45.8

Att38.2▲+7.0

Cmp%57.5%▼-7.3

Pass TD1.8▲+0.3

INT1.0▲+0.5

Rush Yds3.0▼-0.6

Snaps67.0▲+10.0

Snap %99.0%▲+3.7

2024

21

Sep 09
30

Sep 15
35

Sep 19
42

Sep 29
54

Oct 06
35

Oct 14
39

Oct 20
28

Oct 27
32

Oct 31
35

Nov 10
29

Nov 17
39

Dec 01
39

Dec 08
30

Dec 15
42

Dec 22
18

Dec 29
36

Jan 05
2025

30

Sep 07
33

Sep 14
23

Sep 21
22

Sep 28
30

Oct 12
34

Oct 16
36

Oct 26
35

Nov 02
31

Nov 09
15

Nov 16
21

Nov 30
34

Dec 07
27

Dec 15
41

Dec 21
39

Dec 28
47

Jan 04
33

Jan 12
2026

40

Sep 13
39

Sep 20
34

Sep 27
40

Oct 01
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 34.5

Home 50% 10/20 · avg 33.1
Away 44% 8/18 · avg 33.6
vs IND 50% 1/2 · avg 32.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 32.5 60% 23/38
O 33.5 55% 21/38
O 34.5 Today 47% 18/38
O 35.5 37% 14/38
O 36.5 32% 12/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs IND

What IND allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds266.2#2
Yds/Att7.8#6
Cmp%61.6%#22
Pass TD1.4#19
Pass Att34.1#7

QBs vs IND · 2026

Each main QB who faced IND this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-3.1

Avg diff %-10%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Marcus Mariota	4	23.5	-83%
Sep 27	C.J. Stroud	27	41.3	-35%
Sep 20	Patrick Mahomes	47	27.0	+74%
Sep 13	Lamar Jackson	25	23.7	+6%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.8 yds	4%14.4 yds	9%7.4 yds
Short	28%5.0 yds	18%7.8 yds	34%5.0 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.5 yds#10	3%12.3 yds#24	10%11.7 yds#13
Short	27%6.2 yds#10	20%9.0 yds#4	33%6.0 yds#7

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.8 yds	4%14.4 yds	9%7.4 yds
Short	28%5.1 yds	18%7.8 yds	34%5.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	4	8.2	33	22.6%
2	Roman Wilson WR	4	6.0	24	16.8%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	4	5.0	20	13.8%
4	Pat Freiermuth TE	4	4.8	19	13.2%
5	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
6	Germie Bernard WR	3	3.7	11	10.0%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	4	3.2	13	9.1%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 34.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-01	4	@ CLE	40	Over	34.5	72 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CIN	34	Under	35.5	62 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	39	Over	34.5	67 (96%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	40	Over	31.5	67 (100%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	vs HOU	33	Under	33.5	51 (89%)
2026-01-04	18	vs BAL	47	Over	44.5	75 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CLE	39	Over	32.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	41	Over	42.5	74 (100%)
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	27	Under	31.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	34	Under	30.5	52 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	vs BUF	21	Under	27.5	36 (84%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CIN	15	Under	32.5	37 (57%)
2025-11-09	10	@ LAC	31	Under	33.5	52 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs IND	35	Over	33.5	62 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	vs GB	36	Over	—	63 (100%)
2025-10-16	7	@ CIN	34	Under	31.5	57 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	vs CLE	30	Under	—	56 (95%)
2025-09-28	4	vs MIN	22	Under	—	53 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NE	23	Under	—	54 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs SEA	33	Under	—	59 (95%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NYJ	30	Under	—	56 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	vs MIA	36	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-29	17	@ BUF	18	Under	—	40 (63%)
2024-12-22	16	vs LA	42	Over	—	69 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	@ JAX	30	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	@ MIA	39	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	vs SEA	39	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs IND	29	Under	—	51 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	@ ARI	35	Over	—	58 (100%)
2024-10-31	9	vs HOU	32	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ NE	28	Under	—	62 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	@ PIT	39	Over	—	57 (100%)
2024-10-14	6	vs BUF	35	Over	—	63 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	@ MIN	54	Over	—	72 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	vs DEN	42	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-09-19	3	vs NE	35	Over	—	73 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	@ TEN	30	Under	—	57 (100%)
2024-09-09	1	@ SF	21	Under	—	38 (75%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 15m ago.