NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Daniel Jones QB

IND vs PIT · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

31.5 Pass Att O -113U -112

Hit rate · Last 20 40%8/20 Odds imply 50.1% Over

Season avg: 33.0
Graph avg: 30.9
Graph median: 31.07–50
Over the close: 35%6/17

2026 per game

Pass Yds188.5▼-50.0

Att33.0▲+3.5

Cmp%63.6%▼-4.3

Pass TD0.8▼-0.7

INT1.0▲+0.4

Rush Yds5.2▼-7.4

Snaps64.0▲+5.8

Snap %100.0%▲+8.5

2024

38

Oct 28
26

Nov 03
37

Nov 10
2025

29

Sep 07
34

Sep 14
25

Sep 21
33

Sep 28
29

Oct 05
30

Oct 12
34

Oct 19
29

Oct 26
50

Nov 02
26

Nov 09
31

Nov 23
27

Nov 30
7

Dec 07
2026

31

Sep 13
31

Sep 20
36

Sep 27
34

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 31.5

Home 36% 5/14 · avg 31.5
Away 62% 8/13 · avg 32.0
vs PIT 100% 2/2 · avg 44.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 29.5 60% 12/20
O 30.5 55% 11/20
O 31.5 Today 40% 8/20
O 32.5 40% 8/20
O 33.5 35% 7/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds241.1#11
Yds/Att7.9#4
Cmp%66.4%#7
Pass TD1.6#14
Pass Att30.4#25

QBs vs PIT · 2026

Each main QB who faced PIT this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-2.3

Avg diff %-6%

Beat their average33% (1/3)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 01	Deshaun Watson	33	27.3	+21%
Sep 27	Joe Burrow	37	40.0	-8%
Sep 20	Drake Maye	22	31.7	-31%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.3 yds	5%17.4 yds	5%6.2 yds
Short	30%5.3 yds	18%6.6 yds	35%4.6 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%21.5 yds#1	4%12.8 yds#22	6%18.4 yds#2
Short	33%5.8 yds#17	22%6.4 yds#20	28%5.5 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%8.2 yds	5%19.2 yds	5%11.2 yds
Short	35%6.4 yds	15%6.3 yds	33%4.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Josh Downs WR	4	7.0	28	22.3%
2	Tyler Warren TE	4	6.8	27	21.6%
3	Keenan Allen WR	3	6.7	20	21.0%
4	Jonathan Taylor RB	4	3.8	15	12.4%
5	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
6	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	4	2.8	11	9.2%
8	Deion Burks WR	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Seth McGowan RB	4	0.8	3	2.6%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 31.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ WAS	34	Over	31.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs HOU	36	Over	31.5	71 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ KC	31	Under	31.5	65 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BAL	31	Under	32.5	54 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ JAX	7	Under	36.5	16 (23%)
2025-11-30	13	vs HOU	27	Under	31.5	54 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	@ KC	31	Under	28.5	51 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ATL	26	Under	28.5	77 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ PIT	50	Over	34.5	78 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TEN	29	Under	29.5	47 (89%)
2025-10-19	7	@ LAC	34	Over	33.5	60 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	vs ARI	30	Under	31.5	59 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs LV	29	Under	29.5	59 (89%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LA	33	Over	28.5	61 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ TEN	25	Under	30.5	50 (88%)
2025-09-14	2	vs DEN	34	Over	38.5	71 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	vs MIA	29	Under	31.5	73 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	@ CAR	37	Over	—	75 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	vs WAS	26	Under	—	65 (100%)
2024-10-28	8	@ PIT	38	Over	—	72 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 31.5PrizePicks 32.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 12m ago.