NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Trevor Lawrence QB

JAX vs PHI · Sun Oct 11 · 9:30 AM ET

30.5 Pass Att O -103U -123

Hit rate · Last 20 40%8/20 Odds imply 47.9% Over

Season avg: 26.0
Graph avg: 31.1
Graph median: 30.022–48
Over the close: 30%6/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds210.8▼-23.4

Att26.0▼-6.8

Cmp%69.2%▲+8.4

Pass TD2.0▲+0.2

INT0.5▼-0.3

Rush Yds8.5▼-13.2

Snaps57.2▼-7.8

Snap %95.8%▼-1.1

2025

40

Sep 21
31

Sep 28
25

Oct 06
42

Oct 12
48

Oct 19
34

Nov 02
23

Nov 09
22

Nov 16
30

Nov 23
27

Nov 30
30

Dec 07
32

Dec 14
36

Dec 21
37

Dec 28
30

Jan 04
30

Jan 11
2026

23

Sep 13
29

Sep 20
29

Sep 27
23

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 30.5

Home 41% 7/17 · avg 29.9
Away 60% 9/15 · avg 31.3
vs PHI 100% 1/1 · avg 31.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 28.5 70% 14/20
O 29.5 60% 12/20
O 30.5 Today 40% 8/20
O 31.5 35% 7/20
O 32.5 30% 6/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs PHI

What PHI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds190.7#30
Yds/Att6.3#28
Cmp%60.1%#25
Pass TD0.8#30
Pass Att30.1#27

QBs vs PHI · 2026

Each main QB who faced PHI this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.5

Avg diff %+0%

Beat their average50% (1/2)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Matthew Stafford	51	37.0	+38%
Sep 20	Cam Ward	20	33.0	-39%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

JAX offense

JAX offense: Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.7 yds	5%16.9 yds	8%11.0 yds
Short	32%6.5 yds	16%6.2 yds	28%7.6 yds

Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PHI defense

PHI defense: Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%8.9 yds#22	4%19.6 yds#5	8%10.2 yds#20
Short	32%5.8 yds#16	19%6.0 yds#24	34%4.6 yds#28

Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.7 yds	5%16.9 yds	8%11.0 yds
Short	32%6.4 yds	15%6.3 yds	28%7.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of JAX targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Parker Washington WR	4	6.5	26	25.7%
2	Brenton Strange TE	4	4.5	18	18.7%
3	Jakobi Meyers WR	4	3.8	15	15.0%
4	Brian Thomas Jr. WR	4	3.5	14	13.8%
5	Bhayshul Tuten RB	4	1.8	7	7.0%
6	Josh Cameron WR	4	1.5	6	6.4%
7	Nate Boerkircher TE	3	1.3	4	5.7%
8	LeQuint Allen Jr. RB	3	1.0	3	3.7%
9	Ameer Abdullah RB	4	0.8	3	3.0%
10	Quintin Morris TE	3	0.7	2	2.8%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 30.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ CIN	23	Under	33.5	61 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NE	29	Under	32.5	59 (95%)
2026-09-20	2	@ DEN	29	Under	32.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs CLE	23	Under	31.5	50 (88%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs BUF	30	Under	32.5	56 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs TEN	30	Under	31.5	50 (82%)
2025-12-28	17	@ IND	37	Over	38.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DEN	36	Over	35.5	70 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs NYJ	32	Over	30.5	54 (87%)
2025-12-07	14	vs IND	30	Under	31.5	58 (91%)
2025-11-30	13	@ TEN	27	Under	28.5	60 (95%)
2025-11-23	12	@ ARI	30	Under	25.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs LAC	22	Under	22.5	63 (89%)
2025-11-09	10	@ HOU	23	Under	33.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ LV	34	Over	32.5	80 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LA	48	Over	35.5	77 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	vs SEA	42	Over	33.5	76 (100%)
2025-10-06	5	vs KC	25	Under	33.5	58 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ SF	31	Over	33.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs HOU	40	Over	43.5	70 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 29.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.