NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jared Goff QB

DET vs ARI · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

35.5 Pass Att O -103U -124

Hit rate · All 38%15/39 Odds imply 47.8% Over

Season avg: 40.2
Graph avg: 33.8
Graph median: 33.015–59
Over the close: 42%8/19

2026 per game

Pass Yds303.5▲+35.0

Att40.2▲+6.2

Cmp%67.7%▼-0.3

Pass TD2.2▲+0.2

INT0.0▼-0.5

Rush Yds3.8▲+1.1

Snaps69.5▲+5.8

Snap %100.0%▲+1.5

2024

28

Sep 08
55

Sep 15
23

Sep 22
18

Sep 30
25

Oct 13
25

Oct 20
15

Oct 27
22

Nov 03
30

Nov 10
29

Nov 17
36

Nov 24
34

Nov 28
41

Dec 05
59

Dec 15
32

Dec 22
34

Dec 30
33

Jan 05
40

Jan 18
2025

39

Sep 07
28

Sep 14
28

Sep 22
27

Sep 28
23

Oct 05
29

Oct 12
29

Oct 20
37

Nov 02
33

Nov 09
37

Nov 16
42

Nov 23
26

Nov 27
34

Dec 04
41

Dec 14
54

Dec 21
29

Dec 25
42

Jan 04
2026

39

Sep 13
38

Sep 17
32

Sep 27
52

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 35.5

Home 40% 8/20 · avg 35.0
Away 37% 7/19 · avg 32.5
vs ARI 0% 0/1 · avg 23.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 33.5 46% 18/39
O 34.5 38% 15/39
O 35.5 Today 38% 15/39
O 36.5 36% 14/39
O 37.5 31% 12/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds251.1#5
Yds/Att8.2#3
Cmp%66.2%#8
Pass TD2.6#1
Pass Att30.8#22

QBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main QB who faced ARI this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.3

Avg diff %+0%

Beat their average33% (1/3)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Jameis Winston	29	24.5	+18%
Sep 27	Brock Purdy	27	28.7	-6%
Sep 13	Justin Herbert	27	30.7	-12%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%14.8 yds	6%15.0 yds	5%14.2 yds
Short	29%5.2 yds	26%8.9 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.7 yds#4	4%13.3 yds#21	10%12.1 yds#11
Short	31%5.7 yds#19	18%8.6 yds#6	31%7.4 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%14.8 yds	6%15.0 yds	5%14.2 yds
Short	30%5.2 yds	26%9.0 yds	29%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	4	11.5	46	29.4%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	4	8.0	32	19.3%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	4	7.0	28	18.4%
4	Jameson Williams WR	4	6.2	25	15.5%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	4	4.2	17	10.3%
6	Brock Wright TE	4	1.2	5	3.2%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	4	1.2	5	3.1%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 35.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	52	Over	33.5	71 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NYJ	32	Under	32.5	65 (100%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	38	Over	36.5	65 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NO	39	Over	33.5	77 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	42	Over	39.5	73 (100%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	29	Under	32.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	54	Over	32.5	74 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	41	Over	33.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-04	14	vs DAL	34	Under	36.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	vs GB	26	Under	—	63 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYG	42	Over	37.5	68 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PHI	37	Over	37.5	59 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	33	Under	36.5	61 (87%)
2025-11-02	9	vs MIN	37	Over	39.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-20	7	vs TB	29	Under	33.5	68 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ KC	29	Under	32.5	54 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	23	Under	31.5	62 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CLE	27	Under	29.5	56 (93%)
2025-09-22	3	@ BAL	28	Under	29.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CHI	28	Under	27.5	56 (95%)
2025-09-07	1	@ GB	39	Over	—	67 (100%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs WAS	40	Over	—	66 (96%)
2025-01-05	18	vs MIN	33	Under	—	68 (100%)
2024-12-30	17	@ SF	34	Under	—	71 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CHI	32	Under	—	65 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs BUF	59	Over	—	79 (100%)
2024-12-05	14	vs GB	41	Over	—	80 (100%)
2024-11-28	13	vs CHI	34	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ IND	36	Over	—	72 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs JAX	29	Under	—	63 (80%)
2024-11-10	10	@ HOU	30	Under	—	65 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	@ GB	22	Under	—	57 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs TEN	15	Under	—	42 (88%)
2024-10-20	7	@ MIN	25	Under	—	57 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DAL	25	Under	—	57 (84%)
2024-09-30	4	vs SEA	18	Under	—	53 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ARI	23	Under	—	68 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	vs TB	55	Over	—	85 (99%)
2024-09-08	1	vs LA	28	Under	—	61 (100%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.