NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Daniel Jones QB

IND vs TEN · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

234.5 Pass Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 46%13/28 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 204.2
Graph avg: 221.1
Graph median: 220.060–342
Over the close: 50%9/18

2026 per game

Pass Yds204.2▼-34.3

Att35.2▲+5.7

Cmp%61.4%▼-6.6

Pass TD0.6▼-0.9

INT0.8▲+0.2

Rush Yds5.0▼-7.6

Snaps65.4▲+7.2

Snap %100.0%▲+8.5

234.5

2024

186

Sep 08
178

Sep 15
236

Sep 22
281

Sep 26
257

Oct 06
205

Oct 13
99

Oct 20
264

Oct 28
174

Nov 03
190

Nov 10
2025

272

Sep 07
316

Sep 14
228

Sep 21
262

Sep 28
212

Oct 05
212

Oct 12
288

Oct 19
272

Oct 26
342

Nov 02
255

Nov 09
181

Nov 23
201

Nov 30
60

Dec 07
2026

166

Sep 13
210

Sep 20
235

Sep 27
143

Oct 04
267

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 234.5

Home 43% 6/14 · avg 220.4
Away 50% 7/14 · avg 221.9
vs TEN 50% 1/2 · avg 250.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 214.5 50% 14/28
O 224.5 50% 14/28
O 234.5 Today 46% 13/28
O 244.5 39% 11/28
O 254.5 39% 11/28

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds253.2#7
Yds/Att8.4#2
Cmp%71.1%#3
Pass TD1.6#12
Pass Att30.1#27

QBs vs TEN · 2026

Each main QB who faced TEN this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-13.4

Avg diff %-2%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	C.J. Stroud	261	285.2	-9%
Oct 04	Lamar Jackson	222	248.3	-11%
Sep 27	Jameis Winston	118	229.0	-48%
Sep 20	Jalen Hurts	264	167.2	+58%
Sep 13	Geno Smith	215	217.2	-1%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%5.7 yds	4%15.9 yds	6%7.4 yds
Short	33%5.1 yds	17%7.1 yds	32%4.9 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%11.5 yds#13	4%20.0 yds#6	9%15.3 yds#4
Short	31%6.7 yds#7	16%9.8 yds#2	34%5.7 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.7 yds	4%17.9 yds	5%10.2 yds
Short	36%6.2 yds	15%6.1 yds	31%4.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tyler Warren TE	5	7.2	36	21.5%
2	Keenan Allen WR	4	7.2	29	21.0%
3	Josh Downs WR	5	6.8	34	20.6%
4	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
5	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
6	Jonathan Taylor RB	5	3.8	19	11.8%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	5	3.8	19	11.1%
8	Deion Burks WR	3	1.3	4	3.8%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	2	1.5	3	3.8%
10	Seth McGowan RB	5	0.8	4	2.5%

Game log · 28 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 234.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ PIT	267	Over	208.5	71 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ WAS	143	Under	222.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs HOU	235	Over	210.5	71 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ KC	210	Under	215.5	65 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BAL	166	Under	231.5	54 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ JAX	60	Under	221.5	16 (23%)
2025-11-30	13	vs HOU	201	Under	225.5	54 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	@ KC	181	Under	195.5	51 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ATL	255	Over	225.5	77 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ PIT	342	Over	275.5	78 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	vs TEN	272	Over	260.5	47 (89%)
2025-10-19	7	@ LAC	288	Over	275.5	60 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	vs ARI	212	Under	225.5	59 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs LV	212	Under	232.5	59 (89%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LA	262	Over	240.5	61 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ TEN	228	Under	211.5	50 (88%)
2025-09-14	2	vs DEN	316	Over	351.5	71 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	vs MIA	272	Over	261.5	73 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	@ CAR	190	Under	—	75 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	vs WAS	174	Under	—	65 (100%)
2024-10-28	8	@ PIT	264	Over	—	72 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs PHI	99	Under	—	46 (79%)
2024-10-13	6	vs CIN	205	Under	—	79 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	@ SEA	257	Over	—	72 (100%)
2024-09-26	4	vs DAL	281	Over	—	69 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ CLE	236	Over	—	72 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	@ WAS	178	Under	—	56 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	vs MIN	186	Under	—	71 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 235.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 6m ago.