NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Trevor Lawrence QB

JAX vs HOU · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

228.5 Pass Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 46%15/33 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 234.8
Graph avg: 225.2
Graph median: 222.041–371
Over the close: 52%12/23

2026 per game

Pass Yds234.8▲+0.7

Att28.6▼-4.2

Cmp%67.1%▲+6.3

Pass TD2.0▲+0.2

INT0.6▼-0.2

Rush Yds11.8▼-9.9

Snaps60.2▼-4.8

Snap %96.6%▼-0.3

228.5

2024

162

Sep 08
220

Sep 15
178

Sep 23
169

Sep 29
371

Oct 06
234

Oct 13
193

Oct 20
308

Oct 27
169

Nov 03
41

Dec 01
2025

178

Sep 07
271

Sep 14
222

Sep 21
174

Sep 28
221

Oct 06
258

Oct 12
296

Oct 19
220

Nov 02
158

Nov 09
153

Nov 16
256

Nov 23
229

Nov 30
244

Dec 07
330

Dec 14
279

Dec 21
263

Dec 28
255

Jan 04
207

Jan 11
2026

245

Sep 13
189

Sep 20
182

Sep 27
227

Oct 04
331

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 228.5

Home 50% 9/18 · avg 236.4
Away 40% 6/15 · avg 211.9
vs HOU 0% 0/4 · avg 147.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 208.5 61% 20/33
O 218.5 61% 20/33
O 228.5 Today 46% 15/33
O 238.5 39% 13/33
O 248.5 33% 11/33

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs HOU

What HOU allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds231.5#14
Yds/Att7.1#16
Cmp%64.5%#13
Pass TD1.4#18
Pass Att32.7#13

QBs vs HOU · 2026

Each main QB who faced HOU this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+24.9

Avg diff %+12%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Cam Ward	170	181.5	-6%
Oct 04	Dak Prescott	335	261.5	+28%
Sep 27	Daniel Jones	235	196.5	+20%
Sep 20	Joe Burrow	207	288.5	-28%
Sep 13	Josh Allen	334	228.8	+46%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

JAX offense

JAX offense: Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.4 yds	4%18.1 yds	7%11.5 yds
Short	34%6.8 yds	16%6.6 yds	28%7.9 yds

Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

HOU defense

HOU defense: Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%12.6 yds#11	3%22.5 yds#2	7%13.0 yds#7
Short	28%5.1 yds#28	19%6.9 yds#17	33%4.5 yds#29

Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.4 yds	5%18.1 yds	7%11.5 yds
Short	34%6.8 yds	17%6.6 yds	28%7.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of JAX targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Parker Washington WR	5	7.0	35	25.3%
2	Brenton Strange TE	5	5.2	26	19.2%
3	Jakobi Meyers WR	5	3.6	18	13.6%
4	Brian Thomas Jr. WR	5	3.4	17	12.6%
5	Josh Cameron WR	5	2.4	12	8.3%
6	Bhayshul Tuten RB	5	2.0	10	7.2%
7	Nate Boerkircher TE	4	1.5	6	5.6%
8	LeQuint Allen Jr. RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Ameer Abdullah RB	5	0.6	3	2.4%
10	Quintin Morris TE	4	0.5	2	2.1%

Game log · 33 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 228.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs PHI	331	Over	225.5	72 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CIN	227	Under	258.5	61 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NE	182	Under	228.5	59 (95%)
2026-09-20	2	@ DEN	189	Under	224.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs CLE	245	Over	234.5	50 (88%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs BUF	207	Under	222.5	56 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs TEN	255	Over	246.5	50 (82%)
2025-12-28	17	@ IND	263	Over	280.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DEN	279	Over	220.5	70 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs NYJ	330	Over	218.5	54 (87%)
2025-12-07	14	vs IND	244	Over	210.5	58 (91%)
2025-11-30	13	@ TEN	229	Over	221.5	60 (95%)
2025-11-23	12	@ ARI	256	Over	225.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs LAC	153	Under	160.5	63 (89%)
2025-11-09	10	@ HOU	158	Under	201.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ LV	220	Under	190.5	80 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LA	296	Over	295.5	77 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	vs SEA	258	Over	291.5	76 (100%)
2025-10-06	5	vs KC	221	Under	200.5	58 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ SF	174	Under	180.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs HOU	222	Under	215.5	70 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ CIN	271	Over	285.5	71 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	vs CAR	178	Under	185.5	66 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	vs HOU	41	Under	—	19 (27%)
2024-11-03	9	@ PHI	169	Under	—	54 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs GB	308	Over	—	57 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs NE	193	Under	—	61 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	@ CHI	234	Over	—	59 (95%)
2024-10-06	5	vs IND	371	Over	—	58 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	@ HOU	169	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-09-23	3	@ BUF	178	Under	—	57 (80%)
2024-09-15	2	vs CLE	220	Under	—	60 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	@ MIA	162	Under	—	53 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 228.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 15m ago.