NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Cam Ward QB

TEN vs IND · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

200.5 Pass Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 30%3/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 179.2
Graph avg: 171.4
Graph median: 175.552–251
Over the close: 50%2/4

2026 per game

Pass Yds179.2▼-7.2

Att31.0▼-0.8

Cmp%63.2%▲+3.4

Pass TD0.6▼-0.3

INT0.6▲+0.2

Rush Yds11.8▲+2.4

Snaps58.0▼-1.2

Snap %100.0%▲+5.4

200.5

2025

117

Dec 07
170

Dec 14
228

Dec 21
251

Dec 28
52

Jan 04
2026

140

Sep 13
183

Sep 20
181

Sep 27
222

Oct 04
170

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 200.5

Home 42% 5/12 · avg 196.4
Away 40% 4/10 · avg 170.8
vs IND 100% 2/2 · avg 239.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 180.5 50% 5/10
O 190.5 30% 3/10
O 200.5 Today 30% 3/10
O 210.5 30% 3/10
O 220.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs IND

What IND allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds262.1#3
Yds/Att7.8#7
Cmp%62.3%#22
Pass TD1.7#8
Pass Att33.7#9

QBs vs IND · 2026

Each main QB who faced IND this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+3.2

Avg diff %+1%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Aaron Rodgers	235	249.8	-6%
Oct 04	Marcus Mariota	46	147.0	-69%
Sep 27	C.J. Stroud	167	308.8	-46%
Sep 20	Patrick Mahomes	382	218.3	+75%
Sep 13	Lamar Jackson	324	214.3	+51%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TEN offense

TEN offense: Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%5.7 yds	2%16.8 yds	7%14.4 yds
Short	34%5.3 yds	10%4.1 yds	40%4.4 yds

Share of TEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%13.6 yds#8	3%12.3 yds#24	10%12.0 yds#12
Short	28%6.1 yds#11	21%8.8 yds#4	32%5.9 yds#11

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.6 yds	2%16.8 yds	7%14.1 yds
Short	31%5.9 yds	11%4.2 yds	41%4.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of TEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Carnell Tate WR	5	7.4	37	26.7%
2	Wan'Dale Robinson WR	5	6.0	30	19.3%
3	Tyjae Spears RB	5	3.2	16	11.1%
4	Gunnar Helm TE	5	2.6	13	9.5%
5	Elic Ayomanor WR	5	2.4	12	9.2%
6	Tony Pollard RB	5	2.4	12	8.3%
7	Calvin Ridley WR	4	2.0	8	7.6%
8	Daniel Bellinger TE	5	1.4	7	4.9%
9	Chimere Dike WR	5	1.4	7	4.3%
10	Kylen Granson TE	1	1.0	1	2.9%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 200.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs HOU	170	Under	190.5	63 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ BAL	222	Over	187.5	64 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NYG	181	Under	178.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PHI	183	Under	186.5	53 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NYJ	140	Under	—	50 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ JAX	52	Under	—	5 (9%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NO	251	Over	—	74 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs KC	228	Over	—	73 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ SF	170	Under	—	53 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ CLE	117	Under	—	66 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 199.5PrizePicks 201.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 4m ago.