NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Justin Herbert QB

LAC vs KC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

193.5 Pass Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 10 50%5/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 187.4
Graph avg: 198.1
Graph median: 200.5121–300
Over the close: 30%3/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds187.4▼-41.2

Att28.6▼-3.3

Cmp%59.4%▼-6.7

Pass TD1.0▼-0.5

INT1.4▲+0.6

Rush Yds28.4▼-4.2

Snaps66.0▲+1.1

Snap %100.0%▲+3.0

193.5

2025

139

Dec 08
210

Dec 14
300

Dec 21
236

Dec 27
159

Jan 11
2026

209

Sep 13
192

Sep 20
226

Sep 27
189

Oct 04
121

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 193.5

Home 60% 12/20 · avg 222.9
Away 70% 14/20 · avg 223.8
vs KC 75% 3/4 · avg 230.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 173.5 70% 7/10
O 183.5 70% 7/10
O 193.5 Today 50% 5/10
O 203.5 50% 5/10
O 213.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs KC

What KC allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds216.4#21
Yds/Att6.4#27
Cmp%61.8%#24
Pass TD1.1#27
Pass Att33.8#8

QBs vs KC · 2026

Each main QB who faced KC this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+36.0

Avg diff %+17%

Beat their average75% (3/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Kirk Cousins	365	226.0	+62%
Sep 27	Malik Willis	210	159.8	+31%
Sep 20	Daniel Jones	210	202.8	+4%
Sep 14	Bo Nix	131	183.6	-29%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAC offense

LAC offense: Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.7 yds	1%17.0 yds	8%7.0 yds
Short	28%6.3 yds	15%6.2 yds	39%4.6 yds

Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.3 yds#22	4%14.1 yds#20	5%8.0 yds#27
Short	30%5.6 yds#19	14%6.2 yds#24	37%5.3 yds#18

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%14.4 yds	2%13.6 yds	8%7.3 yds
Short	26%7.4 yds	16%6.2 yds	39%4.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of LAC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tre Harris WR	5	5.0	25	18.0%
2	Quentin Johnston WR	4	4.8	19	16.5%
3	David Njoku TE	2	4.0	8	15.0%
4	Ladd McConkey WR	4	4.2	17	14.8%
5	Brenen Thompson WR	1	3.0	3	11.5%
6	Oronde Gadsden II TE	5	3.2	16	11.0%
7	Keaton Mitchell RB	5	2.8	14	10.3%
8	Charlie Kolar TE	3	2.3	7	10.2%
9	Kimani Vidal RB	4	2.0	8	7.1%
10	Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR	3	1.7	5	6.8%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 193.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DEN	121	Under	200.5	67 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SEA	189	Under	199.5	71 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ BUF	226	Over	225.5	69 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs LV	192	Under	223.5	68 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ARI	209	Over	233.5	55 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ NE	159	Under	155.5	60 (100%)
2025-12-27	17	vs HOU	236	Over	250.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DAL	300	Over	285.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ KC	210	Over	210.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-08	14	vs PHI	139	Under	165.5	74 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 194.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Caesars, updated 8m ago.