NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Sam Darnold QB

SEA vs KC · Sun Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ET

224.5 Pass Yds

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply —

Season avg: 206.6
Graph avg: 225.3
Graph median: 228.513–379
Over the close: 61%11/18

2026 per game

Pass Yds206.6▼-29.4

Att29.8▲+1.4

Cmp%60.4%▼-6.3

Pass TD1.4▼-0.1

INT1.4▲+0.7

Rush Yds7.0▲+1.5

Snaps56.0▼-4.6

Snap %82.0%▼-14.2

224.5

2025

295

Oct 12
213

Oct 20
330

Nov 02
178

Nov 09
279

Nov 16
244

Nov 23
128

Nov 30
249

Dec 07
271

Dec 14
270

Dec 18
147

Dec 28
198

Jan 03
124

Jan 17
346

Jan 25
202

Feb 08
2026

13

Sep 09
379

Sep 27
168

Oct 04
195

Oct 11
278

Oct 15
?

Oct 26

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 224.5

Home 50% 11/22 · avg 226.5
Away 76% 16/21 · avg 254.0
vs KC No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 204.5 55% 11/20
O 214.5 50% 10/20
O 224.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 234.5 50% 10/20
O 244.5 45% 9/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs KC

What KC allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds204.8#28
Yds/Att6.1#29
Cmp%60.7%#26
Pass TD0.9#31
Pass Att33.6#13

QBs vs KC · 2026

Each main QB who faced KC this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+26.0

Avg diff %+12%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Justin Herbert	204	187.4	+9%
Oct 04	Kirk Cousins	365	243.4	+50%
Sep 27	Malik Willis	210	159.8	+31%
Sep 20	Daniel Jones	210	216.0	-3%
Sep 14	Bo Nix	131	183.6	-29%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SEA offense

SEA offense: Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%7.0 yds	4%11.5 yds	7%16.4 yds
Short	32%6.3 yds	16%7.5 yds	36%6.2 yds

Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%11.7 yds#12	5%14.2 yds#20	5%4.2 yds#31
Short	27%5.0 yds#27	17%6.2 yds#24	37%4.8 yds#28

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%7.5 yds	4%11.6 yds	8%13.1 yds
Short	33%6.0 yds	16%7.0 yds	35%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of SEA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR	6	11.0	66	35.6%
2	Rashid Shaheed WR	6	4.5	27	14.9%
3	Cooper Kupp WR	6	4.2	25	12.4%
4	AJ Barner TE	6	4.0	24	12.4%
5	Jadarian Price RB	3	2.3	7	7.6%
6	Tory Horton WR	3	3.0	9	7.5%
7	George Holani RB	6	2.0	12	6.5%
8	Emanuel Wilson RB	6	1.3	8	5.6%
9	Elijah Arroyo TE	2	1.0	2	3.8%
10	Brady Russell RB	5	0.6	3	2.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 224.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	@ DEN	278	Over	224.5	85 (100%)
2026-10-11	5	vs SF	195	Under	231.5	63 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs LAC	168	Under	233.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ WAS	379	Over	219.5	67 (100%)
2026-09-09	1	vs NE	13	Under	228.5	5 (10%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	@ NE	202	Under	231.5	72 (100%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs LA	346	Over	233.5	67 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs SF	124	Under	215.5	47 (89%)
2026-01-03	18	@ SF	198	Under	180.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CAR	147	Under	140.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-18	16	vs LA	270	Over	240.5	68 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs IND	271	Over	245.5	60 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ATL	249	Over	235.5	53 (87%)
2025-11-30	13	vs MIN	128	Under	140.5	64 (96%)
2025-11-23	12	@ TEN	244	Over	234.5	48 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ LA	279	Over	250.5	84 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ARI	178	Under	267.5	56 (90%)
2025-11-02	9	@ WAS	330	Over	—	48 (94%)
2025-10-20	7	vs HOU	213	Under	—	72 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ JAX	295	Over	234.5	55 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 223.5Underdog 224.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 10m ago.