NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Aaron Rodgers QB

PIT vs TB · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

226.5 Pass Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · Last 20 40%8/20 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 246.8
Graph avg: 212.8
Graph median: 220.0116–299
Over the close: 56%9/16

2026 per game

Pass Yds246.8▲+42.8

Att36.8▲+5.6

Cmp%59.8%▼-5.0

Pass TD2.0▲+0.6

INT0.8▲+0.3

Rush Yds3.6+0.0

Snaps65.2▲+8.2

Snap %98.6%▲+3.3

226.5

2025

139

Sep 21
200

Sep 28
235

Oct 12
249

Oct 16
219

Oct 26
203

Nov 02
161

Nov 09
116

Nov 16
117

Nov 30
284

Dec 07
224

Dec 15
266

Dec 21
168

Dec 28
294

Jan 04
146

Jan 12
2026

221

Sep 13
187

Sep 20
292

Sep 27
299

Oct 01
235

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 226.5

Home 38% 8/21 · avg 219.8
Away 56% 10/18 · avg 221.3
vs TB No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 206.5 55% 11/20
O 216.5 55% 11/20
O 226.5 Today 40% 8/20
O 236.5 30% 6/20
O 246.5 30% 6/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs TB

What TB allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds231.9#13
Yds/Att7.3#12
Cmp%66.5%#6
Pass TD1.6#13
Pass Att31.9#16

QBs vs TB · 2026

Each main QB who faced TB this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-6.1

Avg diff %+0%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 08	Dak Prescott	316	266.2	+19%
Oct 04	Jordan Love	197	302.8	-35%
Sep 27	Kyler Murray	168	164.7	+2%
Sep 20	Deshaun Watson	238	193.0	+23%
Sep 13	Joe Burrow	254	276.8	-8%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TB defense

TB defense: Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#20	5%12.7 yds#22	6%9.3 yds#24
Short	34%7.0 yds#4	16%7.7 yds#13	32%5.8 yds#12

Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	29%5.2 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	5	7.4	37	20.8%
2	Pat Freiermuth TE	5	5.2	26	15.2%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	5	5.2	26	15.1%
4	Germie Bernard WR	4	5.0	20	15.0%
5	Roman Wilson WR	5	5.0	25	14.1%
6	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	5	3.2	16	9.3%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 226.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs IND	235	Over	222.5	58 (97%)
2026-10-01	4	@ CLE	299	Over	216.5	72 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CIN	292	Over	224.5	62 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	187	Under	209.5	67 (96%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	221	Under	212.5	67 (100%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	vs HOU	146	Under	185.5	51 (89%)
2026-01-04	18	vs BAL	294	Over	225.5	75 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CLE	168	Under	189.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	266	Over	255.5	74 (100%)
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	224	Under	214.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	284	Over	292.5	52 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	vs BUF	117	Under	119.5	36 (84%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CIN	116	Under	215.5	37 (57%)
2025-11-09	10	@ LAC	161	Under	215.5	52 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs IND	203	Under	195.5	62 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	vs GB	219	Under	—	63 (100%)
2025-10-16	7	@ CIN	249	Over	232.5	57 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	vs CLE	235	Over	—	56 (95%)
2025-09-28	4	vs MIN	200	Under	—	53 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NE	139	Under	—	54 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 224.5PrizePicks 229.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 14m ago.