NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kirk Cousins QB

LV vs BUF · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

254.5 Pass Yds O -115U -115

Hit rate · All 21%6/29 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 253.8
Graph avg: 224.1
Graph median: 230.029–509
Over the close: 43%6/14

2026 per game

Pass Yds253.8▲+81.7

Att34.4▲+7.5

Cmp%65.1%▲+3.4

Pass TD2.4▲+1.4

INT0.8▲+0.3

Rush Yds-0.4▼-1.1

Snaps67.0▲+12.7

Snap %96.6%▲+10.5

254.5

2024

155

Sep 08
241

Sep 16
230

Sep 22
238

Sep 29
509

Oct 03
225

Oct 13
232

Oct 20
276

Oct 27
222

Nov 03
306

Nov 10
173

Nov 17
245

Dec 01
344

Dec 08
112

Dec 16
2025

29

Sep 21
173

Oct 26
48

Nov 16
199

Nov 23
234

Nov 30
162

Dec 07
373

Dec 11
197

Dec 21
126

Dec 29
180

Jan 04
2026

160

Sep 13
253

Sep 20
248

Sep 27
365

Oct 04
243

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 254.5

Home 14% 2/14 · avg 217.5
Away 27% 4/15 · avg 230.2
vs BUF No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 234.5 41% 12/29
O 244.5 31% 9/29
O 254.5 Today 21% 6/29
O 264.5 21% 6/29
O 274.5 21% 6/29

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs BUF

What BUF allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds229.2#15
Yds/Att6.5#26
Cmp%62.5%#21
Pass TD2.2#3
Pass Att35.5#6

QBs vs BUF · 2026

Each main QB who faced BUF this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+38.5

Avg diff %+16%

Beat their average80% (4/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Matthew Stafford	383	297.2	+29%
Oct 04	Drake Maye	269	239.8	+12%
Sep 27	Justin Herbert	226	177.8	+27%
Sep 17	Jared Goff	327	289.5	+13%
Sep 13	C.J. Stroud	274	282.0	-3%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LV offense

LV offense: Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.5 yds	3%5.3 yds	5%7.0 yds
Short	30%5.6 yds	19%7.0 yds	35%5.8 yds

Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BUF defense

BUF defense: Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.5 yds#14	4%8.1 yds#32	9%9.2 yds#25
Short	30%5.5 yds#22	16%6.5 yds#20	35%5.4 yds#16

Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%11.3 yds	3%5.4 yds	7%7.4 yds
Short	31%6.3 yds	22%7.4 yds	28%6.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of LV targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Brock Bowers TE	3	11.3	34	31.3%
2	Ashton Jeanty RB	5	6.0	30	17.6%
3	Tre Tucker WR	5	5.6	28	16.4%
4	Michael Mayer TE	5	5.0	25	14.3%
5	Jalen Nailor WR	3	3.7	11	12.5%
6	Jack Bech WR	2	3.0	6	10.3%
7	Cody White WR	5	2.8	14	8.0%
8	Malik Benson WR	5	1.6	8	5.0%
9	Ian Thomas TE	3	1.3	4	3.5%
10	Deven Thompkins WR	1	1.0	1	2.8%

Game log · 29 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 254.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NE	243	Under	231.5	50 (83%)
2026-10-04	4	vs KC	365	Over	223.5	84 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NO	248	Under	211.5	70 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ LAC	253	Under	192.5	63 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs MIA	160	Under	205.5	68 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NO	180	Under	189.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-29	17	vs LA	126	Under	225.5	53 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ ARI	197	Under	190.5	77 (100%)
2025-12-11	15	@ TB	373	Over	320.5	71 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs SEA	162	Under	185.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ NYJ	234	Under	245.5	69 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	@ NO	199	Under	204.5	56 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CAR	48	Under	—	25 (38%)
2025-10-26	8	vs MIA	173	Under	220.5	50 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CAR	29	Under	64.5	15 (23%)
2024-12-16	15	@ LV	112	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	@ MIN	344	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	vs LAC	245	Under	—	81 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	@ DEN	173	Under	—	46 (78%)
2024-11-10	10	@ NO	306	Over	—	78 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	vs DAL	222	Under	—	57 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ TB	276	Over	—	62 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs SEA	232	Under	—	66 (90%)
2024-10-13	6	@ CAR	225	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-10-03	5	vs TB	509	Over	—	87 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	vs NO	238	Under	—	56 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	vs KC	230	Under	—	61 (100%)
2024-09-16	2	@ PHI	241	Under	—	61 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	vs PIT	155	Under	—	56 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 249.5Underdog 249.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: BetMGM, updated 7m ago.