NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Joe Burrow QB

CIN vs BAL · Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

274.5 Pass Yds

Hit rate · All 43%13/30 Odds imply —

Season avg: 272.2
Graph avg: 269.6
Graph median: 259.576–428
Over the close: 31%4/13

2026 per game

Pass Yds272.2▲+46.1

Att37.8▲+5.4

Cmp%71.4%▲+4.6

Pass TD2.2▲+0.1

INT0.6-0.0

Rush Yds9.6▲+4.5

Snaps64.4▲+4.7

Snap %100.0%▲+12.2

274.5

2024

164

Sep 08
258

Sep 15
324

Sep 23
232

Sep 29
392

Oct 06
208

Oct 13
181

Oct 20
234

Oct 27
251

Nov 03
428

Nov 07
356

Nov 17
309

Dec 01
369

Dec 09
271

Dec 15
252

Dec 22
412

Dec 28
277

Jan 04
2025

113

Sep 07
76

Sep 14
261

Nov 27
284

Dec 07
225

Dec 14
309

Dec 21
305

Dec 28
236

Jan 04
2026

254

Sep 13
207

Sep 20
282

Sep 27
428

Oct 04
190

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 274.5

Home 43% 6/14 · avg 275.9
Away 44% 7/16 · avg 264.1
vs BAL 50% 2/4 · avg 326.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 254.5 53% 16/30
O 264.5 47% 14/30
O 274.5 Today 43% 13/30
O 284.5 33% 10/30
O 294.5 33% 10/30

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs BAL

What BAL allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds254.9#5
Yds/Att7.2#12
Cmp%66.5%#6
Pass TD0.9#30
Pass Att35.2#6

QBs vs BAL · 2026

Each main QB who faced BAL this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.2

Avg diff %+1%

Beat their average67% (4/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Deshaun Watson	164	202.0	-19%
Oct 11	Michael Penix Jr.	240	234.7	+2%
Oct 04	Cam Ward	222	155.2	+43%
Sep 27	Dak Prescott	276	272.6	+1%
Sep 20	Tyler Shough	252	238.2	+6%
Sep 13	Daniel Jones	166	224.8	-26%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CIN offense

CIN offense: Share of CIN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%14.4 yds	3%15.0 yds	7%11.0 yds
Short	32%6.1 yds	19%8.2 yds	34%6.0 yds

Share of CIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BAL defense

BAL defense: Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%12.5 yds#9	5%16.1 yds#14	6%15.7 yds#3
Short	31%5.6 yds#17	18%6.3 yds#23	34%5.3 yds#20

Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%14.4 yds	3%15.0 yds	7%11.0 yds
Short	32%6.1 yds	19%8.4 yds	35%6.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of CIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tee Higgins WR	5	8.6	43	22.4%
2	Ja'Marr Chase WR	5	7.6	38	22.2%
3	Chase Brown RB	5	5.6	28	14.6%
4	Mitchell Tinsley WR	1	7.0	7	13.2%
5	Mike Gesicki TE	4	4.2	17	11.1%
6	Erick All TE	2	3.0	6	9.7%
7	Dohnte Meyers WR	5	3.6	18	8.6%
8	Andrei Iosivas WR	2	2.0	4	6.0%
9	Drew Sample TE	3	2.0	6	5.8%
10	Samaje Perine RB	5	2.0	10	5.7%

Game log · 30 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 274.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ MIA	190	Under	258.5	65 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs JAX	428	Over	269.5	76 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ PIT	282	Over	253.5	57 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ HOU	207	Under	249.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs TB	254	Under	269.5	64 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs CLE	236	Under	239.5	67 (99%)
2025-12-28	17	vs ARI	305	Over	268.5	64 (83%)
2025-12-21	16	@ MIA	309	Over	320.5	55 (90%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BAL	225	Under	255.5	76 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BUF	284	Over	252.5	60 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	@ BAL	261	Under	261.5	83 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs JAX	76	Under	290.5	21 (30%)
2025-09-07	1	@ CLE	113	Under	136.5	52 (100%)
2025-01-04	18	@ PIT	277	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-12-28	17	vs DEN	412	Over	—	90 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	vs CLE	252	Under	—	55 (98%)
2024-12-15	15	@ TEN	271	Under	—	69 (100%)
2024-12-09	14	@ DAL	369	Over	—	71 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	vs PIT	309	Over	—	62 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	@ LAC	356	Over	—	82 (100%)
2024-11-07	10	@ BAL	428	Over	—	82 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	vs LV	251	Under	—	73 (99%)
2024-10-27	8	vs PHI	234	Under	—	55 (95%)
2024-10-20	7	@ CLE	181	Under	—	55 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	@ NYG	208	Under	—	53 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	vs BAL	392	Over	—	67 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	@ CAR	232	Under	—	67 (100%)
2024-09-23	3	vs WAS	324	Over	—	62 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	@ KC	258	Under	—	64 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	vs NE	164	Under	—	51 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 274.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 12m ago.