NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jalen Hurts QB

PHI vs JAX · Sun Oct 11 · 9:30 AM ET

186.5 Pass Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · All 48%19/40 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 178.2
Graph avg: 193.3
Graph median: 184.011–326
Over the close: 40%8/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds178.2▼-21.3

Att28.5▼-0.3

Cmp%59.6%▼-4.6

Pass TD1.8▲+0.2

INT0.8▲+0.4

Rush Yds26.2▲+0.7

Snaps59.5▼-1.6

Snap %98.0%▲+0.2

2024

278

Sep 06
183

Sep 16
311

Sep 22
158

Sep 29
264

Oct 13
114

Oct 20
236

Oct 27
230

Nov 03
202

Nov 10
221

Nov 14
179

Nov 24
118

Dec 01
108

Dec 08
290

Dec 15
11

Dec 22
131

Jan 12
128

Jan 19
246

Jan 26
221

Feb 09
2025

152

Sep 04
101

Sep 14
226

Sep 21
130

Sep 28
280

Oct 05
283

Oct 09
326

Oct 19
179

Oct 26
183

Nov 10
135

Nov 16
289

Nov 23
230

Nov 28
240

Dec 08
175

Dec 14
185

Dec 20
110

Dec 28
168

Jan 11
2026

203

Sep 13
264

Sep 20
153

Sep 28
93

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 186.5

Home 52% 11/21 · avg 197.2
Away 42% 8/19 · avg 189.1
vs JAX 100% 1/1 · avg 230.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 166.5 65% 26/40
O 176.5 60% 24/40
O 186.5 Today 48% 19/40
O 196.5 48% 19/40
O 206.5 42% 17/40

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs JAX

What JAX allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds242.7#10
Yds/Att6.9#19
Cmp%65.9%#11
Pass TD0.7#31
Pass Att35.2#4

QBs vs JAX · 2026

Each main QB who faced JAX this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+65.1

Avg diff %+30%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Joe Burrow	428	247.7	+73%
Sep 27	Drake Maye	199	218.3	-9%
Sep 20	Bo Nix	288	177.0	+63%
Sep 13	Deshaun Watson	205	216.7	-5%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PHI offense

PHI offense: Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%5.3 yds	2%10.1 yds	10%11.3 yds
Short	30%5.7 yds	14%7.1 yds	35%4.5 yds

Share of PHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

JAX defense

JAX defense: Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.7 yds#18	3%17.9 yds#9	9%12.1 yds#12
Short	35%6.0 yds#14	13%5.2 yds#29	31%5.3 yds#18

Throws JAX faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.1 yds	3%9.9 yds	10%10.9 yds
Short	30%5.4 yds	15%6.8 yds	34%4.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of PHI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DeVonta Smith WR	3	9.0	27	32.5%
2	Dontayvion Wicks WR	4	5.0	20	19.0%
3	Makai Lemon WR	4	3.8	15	15.3%
4	Dallas Goedert TE	2	3.5	7	14.3%
5	Zach Ertz TE	2	3.0	6	12.0%
6	Darius Cooper WR	4	2.5	10	9.2%
7	Saquon Barkley RB	4	1.8	7	6.7%
8	Will Shipley RB	4	1.5	6	5.6%
9	Johnny Mundt TE	3	1.3	4	4.3%
10	Tank Bigsby RB	4	1.0	4	3.5%

Game log · 40 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 186.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs LA	93	Under	187.5	61 (100%)
2026-09-28	3	@ CHI	153	Under	217.5	46 (92%)
2026-09-20	2	@ TEN	264	Over	206.5	76 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs WAS	203	Over	214.5	55 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs SF	168	Under	169.5	73 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ BUF	110	Under	117.5	54 (100%)
2025-12-20	16	@ WAS	185	Under	200.5	66 (94%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LV	175	Under	166.5	52 (75%)
2025-12-08	14	@ LAC	240	Over	185.5	71 (100%)
2025-11-28	13	vs CHI	230	Over	166.5	54 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	@ DAL	289	Over	305.5	63 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs DET	135	Under	135.5	72 (100%)
2025-11-10	10	@ GB	183	Under	—	63 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	vs NYG	179	Under	203.5	55 (93%)
2025-10-19	7	@ MIN	326	Over	200.5	50 (100%)
2025-10-09	6	@ NYG	283	Over	285.5	57 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DEN	280	Over	275.5	61 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ TB	130	Under	197.5	57 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs LA	226	Over	215.5	67 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ KC	101	Under	100.5	60 (100%)
2025-09-04	1	vs DAL	152	Under	214.5	63 (100%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	vs KC	221	Over	—	67 (91%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	vs WAS	246	Over	—	66 (93%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	vs LA	128	Under	—	63 (100%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs GB	131	Under	—	60 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	@ WAS	11	Under	—	12 (16%)
2024-12-15	15	vs PIT	290	Over	—	80 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	vs CAR	108	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	@ BAL	118	Under	—	56 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ LA	179	Under	—	71 (97%)
2024-11-14	11	vs WAS	221	Over	—	71 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	@ DAL	202	Over	—	54 (79%)
2024-11-03	9	vs JAX	230	Over	—	79 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ CIN	236	Over	—	61 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	@ NYG	114	Under	—	54 (82%)
2024-10-13	6	vs CLE	264	Over	—	62 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	@ TB	158	Under	—	57 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ NO	311	Over	—	72 (100%)
2024-09-16	2	vs ATL	183	Under	—	71 (100%)
2024-09-06	1	vs GB	278	Over	—	76 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 186.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.