NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Geno Smith QB

NYJ vs CLE · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

206.5 Pass Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 225.5
Graph avg: 207.5
Graph median: 208.067–362
Over the close: 42%8/19

2026 per game

Pass Yds225.5▲+23.8

Att29.2▼-0.6

Cmp%72.6%▲+5.2

Pass TD1.2-0.0

INT0.0▼-1.1

Rush Yds9.0▲+1.7

Snaps59.8▲+2.2

Snap %100.0%▲+3.5

2024

223

Jan 05
2025

362

Sep 07
180

Sep 15
289

Sep 21
117

Sep 28
228

Oct 05
174

Oct 12
67

Oct 19
284

Nov 02
143

Nov 06
238

Nov 17
285

Nov 23
165

Nov 30
116

Dec 07
201

Dec 21
176

Dec 28
2026

215

Sep 13
247

Sep 20
321

Sep 27
119

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 206.5

Home 61% 11/18 · avg 231.4
Away 61% 11/18 · avg 226.8
vs CLE 100% 1/1 · avg 285.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 186.5 55% 11/20
O 196.5 55% 11/20
O 206.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 216.5 45% 9/20
O 226.5 40% 8/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs CLE

What CLE allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds207.8#26
Yds/Att6.4#27
Cmp%59.9%#26
Pass TD1.7#10
Pass Att32.7#14

QBs vs CLE · 2026

Each main QB who faced CLE this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+10.5

Avg diff %+6%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 01	Aaron Rodgers	299	233.3	+28%
Sep 27	Bryce Young	291	325.7	-11%
Sep 20	Baker Mayfield	182	216.5	-16%
Sep 13	Trevor Lawrence	245	199.3	+23%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NYJ offense

NYJ offense: Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.7 yds	2%21.2 yds	6%13.4 yds
Short	38%5.1 yds	9%4.1 yds	39%4.8 yds

Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CLE defense

CLE defense: Throws CLE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.7 yds#27	5%16.4 yds#13	7%7.5 yds#29
Short	30%4.4 yds#32	15%7.1 yds#15	35%5.9 yds#9

Throws CLE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%11.7 yds	3%13.9 yds	7%12.9 yds
Short	32%5.5 yds	16%7.2 yds	35%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of NYJ targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Garrett Wilson WR	4	7.8	31	28.2%
2	Adonai Mitchell WR	2	7.5	15	23.2%
3	Kenyon Sadiq TE	4	4.5	18	17.6%
4	Mason Taylor TE	1	3.0	3	13.0%
5	Isaiah Williams WR	4	3.0	12	11.6%
6	Breece Hall RB	3	3.3	10	10.3%
7	Jeremy Ruckert TE	3	2.7	8	7.9%
8	Braelon Allen RB	4	1.8	7	7.2%
9	Jelani Woods TE	2	1.0	2	4.7%
10	Sterling Shepard WR	2	1.0	2	4.7%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 206.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ CHI	119	Under	227.5	32 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DET	321	Over	231.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs GB	247	Over	207.5	74 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ TEN	215	Over	212.5	67 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NYG	176	Under	235.5	53 (90%)
2025-12-21	16	@ HOU	201	Under	179.5	54 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs DEN	116	Under	180.5	37 (74%)
2025-11-30	13	@ LAC	165	Under	185.5	48 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs CLE	285	Over	252.5	79 (100%)
2025-11-17	11	vs DAL	238	Over	266.5	60 (100%)
2025-11-06	10	@ DEN	143	Under	175.5	58 (97%)
2025-11-02	9	vs JAX	284	Over	225.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	@ KC	67	Under	204.5	30 (86%)
2025-10-12	6	vs TEN	174	Under	175.5	61 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ IND	228	Over	230.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CHI	117	Under	120.5	52 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ WAS	289	Over	244.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-15	2	vs LAC	180	Under	205.5	70 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NE	362	Over	328.5	63 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	@ LA	223	Over	—	55 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 206.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 10m ago.