NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Joe Burrow QB

CIN vs MIA · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

256.5 Pass Yds O -113U -111

Hit rate · All 55%16/29 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 292.8
Graph avg: 272.3
Graph median: 261.076–428
Over the close: 33%4/12

2026 per game

Pass Yds292.8▲+66.6

Att39.2▲+6.9

Cmp%71.3%▲+4.5

Pass TD1.8▼-0.4

INT0.8▲+0.1

Rush Yds9.5▲+4.4

Snaps64.2▲+4.5

Snap %100.0%▲+12.2

2024

164

Sep 08
258

Sep 15
324

Sep 23
232

Sep 29
392

Oct 06
208

Oct 13
181

Oct 20
234

Oct 27
251

Nov 03
428

Nov 07
356

Nov 17
309

Dec 01
369

Dec 09
271

Dec 15
252

Dec 22
412

Dec 28
277

Jan 04
2025

113

Sep 07
76

Sep 14
261

Nov 27
284

Dec 07
225

Dec 14
309

Dec 21
305

Dec 28
236

Jan 04
2026

254

Sep 13
207

Sep 20
282

Sep 27
428

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 256.5

Home 43% 6/14 · avg 275.9
Away 67% 10/15 · avg 269.1
vs MIA 100% 1/1 · avg 309.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 236.5 66% 19/29
O 246.5 66% 19/29
O 256.5 Today 55% 16/29
O 266.5 48% 14/29
O 276.5 45% 13/29

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs MIA

What MIA allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds244.5#9
Yds/Att7.9#5
Cmp%73.3%#1
Pass TD1.8#6
Pass Att31.1#21

QBs vs MIA · 2026

Each main QB who faced MIA this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+13.7

Avg diff %+34%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Kyler Murray	247	93.0	+166%
Sep 27	Patrick Mahomes	246	263.7	-7%
Sep 20	Brock Purdy	287	240.0	+20%
Sep 13	Kirk Cousins	160	288.7	-45%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CIN offense

CIN offense: Share of CIN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.4 yds	3%14.9 yds	7%11.7 yds
Short	32%5.5 yds	20%8.2 yds	34%6.2 yds

Share of CIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

MIA defense

MIA defense: Throws MIA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.1 yds#11	4%14.5 yds#19	8%11.2 yds#14
Short	29%6.5 yds#6	15%8.6 yds#5	37%6.3 yds#6

Throws MIA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.4 yds	3%14.9 yds	7%11.7 yds
Short	32%5.5 yds	20%8.4 yds	34%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of CIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tee Higgins WR	4	9.8	39	24.8%
2	Ja'Marr Chase WR	4	7.0	28	19.7%
3	Chase Brown RB	4	6.0	24	15.0%
4	Mitchell Tinsley WR	1	7.0	7	13.2%
5	Mike Gesicki TE	3	5.0	15	12.7%
6	Erick All TE	1	3.0	3	9.7%
7	Dohnte Meyers WR	4	4.0	16	9.2%
8	Drew Sample TE	2	2.5	5	7.1%
9	Andrei Iosivas WR	2	2.0	4	6.0%
10	Samaje Perine RB	4	2.0	8	5.5%

Game log · 29 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 256.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs JAX	428	Over	269.5	76 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ PIT	282	Over	253.5	57 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ HOU	207	Under	249.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs TB	254	Under	269.5	64 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs CLE	236	Under	239.5	67 (99%)
2025-12-28	17	vs ARI	305	Over	268.5	64 (83%)
2025-12-21	16	@ MIA	309	Over	320.5	55 (90%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BAL	225	Under	255.5	76 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BUF	284	Over	252.5	60 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	@ BAL	261	Over	261.5	83 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs JAX	76	Under	290.5	21 (30%)
2025-09-07	1	@ CLE	113	Under	136.5	52 (100%)
2025-01-04	18	@ PIT	277	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-12-28	17	vs DEN	412	Over	—	90 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	vs CLE	252	Under	—	55 (98%)
2024-12-15	15	@ TEN	271	Over	—	69 (100%)
2024-12-09	14	@ DAL	369	Over	—	71 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	vs PIT	309	Over	—	62 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	@ LAC	356	Over	—	82 (100%)
2024-11-07	10	@ BAL	428	Over	—	82 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	vs LV	251	Under	—	73 (99%)
2024-10-27	8	vs PHI	234	Under	—	55 (95%)
2024-10-20	7	@ CLE	181	Under	—	55 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	@ NYG	208	Under	—	53 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	vs BAL	392	Over	—	67 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	@ CAR	232	Under	—	67 (100%)
2024-09-23	3	vs WAS	324	Over	—	62 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	@ KC	258	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	vs NE	164	Under	—	51 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 256.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 12m ago.