NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

C.J. Stroud QB

HOU vs TEN · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

239.5 Pass Yds O -113U -111

Hit rate · All 49%19/39 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 285.2
Graph avg: 228.2
Graph median: 234.050–353
Over the close: 53%10/19

2026 per game

Pass Yds285.2▲+66.3

Att37.8▲+6.4

Cmp%61.6%▼-1.0

Pass TD1.2▼-0.1

INT0.0▼-0.8

Rush Yds16.5▲+2.8

Snaps67.0▲+3.8

Snap %100.0%▲+7.7

2024

234

Sep 08
260

Sep 15
215

Sep 22
345

Sep 29
331

Oct 06
192

Oct 13
86

Oct 20
285

Oct 27
191

Oct 31
232

Nov 10
257

Nov 18
247

Nov 24
242

Dec 01
131

Dec 15
244

Dec 21
185

Dec 25
50

Jan 05
282

Jan 11
245

Jan 18
2025

188

Sep 07
207

Sep 15
204

Sep 21
233

Sep 28
244

Oct 05
229

Oct 20
318

Oct 26
79

Nov 02
276

Nov 30
203

Dec 07
260

Dec 14
187

Dec 21
244

Dec 27
169

Jan 04
250

Jan 12
212

Jan 18
2026

274

Sep 13
353

Sep 20
167

Sep 27
347

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 239.5

Home 58% 11/19 · avg 248.7
Away 40% 8/20 · avg 208.7
vs TEN 33% 1/3 · avg 176.7

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 219.5 59% 23/39
O 229.5 56% 22/39
O 239.5 Today 49% 19/39
O 249.5 33% 13/39
O 259.5 28% 11/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds250.0#6
Yds/Att8.5#2
Cmp%69.4%#3
Pass TD1.7#8
Pass Att29.4#30

QBs vs TEN · 2026

Each main QB who faced TEN this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+2.9

Avg diff %+6%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Lamar Jackson	222	248.3	-11%
Sep 27	Jameis Winston	118	180.5	-35%
Sep 20	Jalen Hurts	264	149.7	+76%
Sep 13	Geno Smith	215	229.0	-6%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.3 yds	3%23.0 yds	8%8.5 yds
Short	24%4.9 yds	22%9.0 yds	36%5.7 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.7 yds#12	4%24.2 yds#3	8%14.8 yds#5
Short	33%6.5 yds#7	16%9.4 yds#3	32%5.8 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.3 yds	3%23.0 yds	8%8.5 yds
Short	24%5.0 yds	22%9.0 yds	36%5.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	2	9.0	18	28.9%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	4	6.5	26	19.4%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	4	6.8	27	17.3%
4	Jared Wayne WR	3	4.0	12	10.9%
5	Kayshon Boutte WR	4	3.2	13	9.7%
6	Jaylin Noel WR	4	3.0	12	8.7%
7	Foster Moreau TE	4	2.2	9	7.3%
8	Woody Marks RB	4	2.2	9	5.6%
9	David Montgomery RB	4	1.8	7	5.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 239.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DAL	347	Over	244.5	55 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	167	Under	239.5	54 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CIN	353	Over	220.5	80 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BUF	274	Over	223.5	79 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ NE	212	Under	210.5	75 (100%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	@ PIT	250	Over	252.5	68 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs IND	169	Under	209.5	44 (65%)
2025-12-27	17	@ LAC	244	Over	225.5	65 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LV	187	Under	160.5	65 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs ARI	260	Over	235.5	67 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ KC	203	Under	219.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ IND	276	Over	285.5	76 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs DEN	79	Under	250.5	23 (32%)
2025-10-26	8	vs SF	318	Over	350.5	80 (100%)
2025-10-20	7	@ SEA	229	Under	—	76 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BAL	244	Over	210.5	56 (80%)
2025-09-28	4	vs TEN	233	Under	218.5	71 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ JAX	204	Under	186.5	63 (100%)
2025-09-15	2	vs TB	207	Under	235.5	49 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	@ LA	188	Under	189.5	63 (100%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	@ KC	245	Over	—	68 (100%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	282	Over	—	73 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	@ TEN	50	Under	—	11 (18%)
2024-12-25	17	vs BAL	185	Under	—	49 (88%)
2024-12-21	16	@ KC	244	Over	—	59 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs MIA	131	Under	—	50 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	@ JAX	242	Over	—	63 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	vs TEN	247	Over	—	56 (100%)
2024-11-18	11	@ DAL	257	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs DET	232	Under	—	68 (100%)
2024-10-31	9	@ NYJ	191	Under	—	79 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs IND	285	Over	—	71 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	@ GB	86	Under	—	64 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	@ NE	192	Under	—	63 (95%)
2024-10-06	5	vs BUF	331	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	vs JAX	345	Over	—	75 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ MIN	215	Under	—	54 (81%)
2024-09-15	2	vs CHI	260	Over	—	62 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	@ IND	234	Under	—	79 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 239.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 14m ago.