NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jared Goff QB

DET vs ARI · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

279.5 Pass Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · All 49%19/39 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 303.5
Graph avg: 274.9
Graph median: 279.085–494
Over the close: 63%12/19

2026 per game

Pass Yds303.5▲+35.0

Att40.2▲+6.2

Cmp%67.7%▼-0.3

Pass TD2.2▲+0.2

INT0.0▼-0.5

Rush Yds3.8▲+1.1

Snaps69.5▲+5.8

Snap %100.0%▲+1.5

2024

217

Sep 08
307

Sep 15
199

Sep 22
292

Sep 30
315

Oct 13
280

Oct 20
85

Oct 27
145

Nov 03
240

Nov 10
412

Nov 17
269

Nov 24
221

Nov 28
283

Dec 05
494

Dec 15
336

Dec 22
303

Dec 30
231

Jan 05
313

Jan 18
2025

225

Sep 07
334

Sep 14
202

Sep 22
168

Sep 28
258

Oct 05
203

Oct 12
241

Oct 20
284

Nov 02
320

Nov 09
255

Nov 16
279

Nov 23
256

Nov 27
309

Dec 04
338

Dec 14
364

Dec 21
197

Dec 25
331

Jan 04
2026

206

Sep 13
327

Sep 17
269

Sep 27
412

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 279.5

Home 50% 10/20 · avg 278.2
Away 47% 9/19 · avg 271.3
vs ARI 0% 0/1 · avg 199.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 259.5 56% 22/39
O 269.5 51% 20/39
O 279.5 Today 49% 19/39
O 289.5 41% 16/39
O 299.5 38% 15/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds251.1#5
Yds/Att8.2#3
Cmp%66.2%#8
Pass TD2.6#1
Pass Att30.8#22

QBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main QB who faced ARI this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+67.5

Avg diff %+49%

Beat their average100% (3/3)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Jameis Winston	250	114.5	+118%
Sep 27	Brock Purdy	297	236.7	+25%
Sep 13	Justin Herbert	209	202.3	+3%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%14.8 yds	6%15.0 yds	5%14.2 yds
Short	29%5.2 yds	26%8.9 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.7 yds#4	4%13.3 yds#21	10%12.1 yds#11
Short	31%5.7 yds#19	18%8.6 yds#6	31%7.4 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%14.8 yds	6%15.0 yds	5%14.2 yds
Short	30%5.2 yds	26%9.0 yds	29%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	4	11.5	46	29.4%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	4	8.0	32	19.3%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	4	7.0	28	18.4%
4	Jameson Williams WR	4	6.2	25	15.5%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	4	4.2	17	10.3%
6	Brock Wright TE	4	1.2	5	3.2%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	4	1.2	5	3.1%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 279.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	412	Over	258.5	71 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NYJ	269	Under	258.5	65 (100%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	327	Over	259.5	65 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NO	206	Under	258.5	77 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	331	Over	305.5	73 (100%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	197	Under	254.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	364	Over	264.5	74 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	338	Over	320.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-04	14	vs DAL	309	Over	280.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	vs GB	256	Under	—	63 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYG	279	Under	285.5	68 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PHI	255	Under	290.5	59 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	320	Over	321.5	61 (87%)
2025-11-02	9	vs MIN	284	Over	274.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-20	7	vs TB	241	Under	245.5	68 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ KC	203	Under	240.5	54 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	258	Under	240.5	62 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CLE	168	Under	160.5	56 (93%)
2025-09-22	3	@ BAL	202	Under	195.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CHI	334	Over	253.5	56 (95%)
2025-09-07	1	@ GB	225	Under	—	67 (100%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs WAS	313	Over	—	66 (96%)
2025-01-05	18	vs MIN	231	Under	—	68 (100%)
2024-12-30	17	@ SF	303	Over	—	71 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CHI	336	Over	—	65 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs BUF	494	Over	—	79 (100%)
2024-12-05	14	vs GB	283	Over	—	80 (100%)
2024-11-28	13	vs CHI	221	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ IND	269	Under	—	72 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs JAX	412	Over	—	63 (80%)
2024-11-10	10	@ HOU	240	Under	—	65 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	@ GB	145	Under	—	57 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs TEN	85	Under	—	42 (88%)
2024-10-20	7	@ MIN	280	Over	—	57 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DAL	315	Over	—	57 (84%)
2024-09-30	4	vs SEA	292	Over	—	53 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ARI	199	Under	—	68 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	vs TB	307	Over	—	85 (99%)
2024-09-08	1	vs LA	217	Under	—	61 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 280.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.