NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Josh Allen QB

BUF vs LV · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

1.5 Pass TDs O -138U +108

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply 54.7% Over

Season avg: 1.4
Graph avg: 1.6
Graph median: 1.50–3
Over the close: 35%7/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds249.8▲+15.1

Att27.6▼-2.1

Cmp%65.9%▼-3.7

Pass TD1.4▼-0.2

INT0.8▲+0.1

Rush Yds47.8▲+10.1

Snaps64.2▼-1.0

Snap %100.0%▲+1.9

1.5

2025

2

Sep 28
2

Oct 05
2

Oct 13
1

Oct 26
1

Nov 02
2

Nov 09
3

Nov 16
0

Nov 20
1

Nov 30
3

Dec 07
3

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
0

Dec 28
1

Jan 11
3

Jan 17
2026

2

Sep 13
3

Sep 17
0

Sep 27
1

Oct 04
1

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 67% 14/21 · avg 1.9
Away 48% 10/21 · avg 1.4
vs LV No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 80% 16/20
O 1.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 2.5 25% 5/20
O 3.5 0% 0/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LV

What LV allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds222.6#19
Yds/Att7.1#14
Cmp%67.0%#4
Pass TD1.5#17
Pass Att31.2#24

QBs vs LV · 2026

Each main QB who faced LV this season: pass tds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.0

Avg diff %+81%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Drake Maye	4	1.0	+300%
Oct 04	Patrick Mahomes	2	2.3	-14%
Sep 27	Tyler Shough	4	1.2	+220%
Sep 20	Justin Herbert	1	1.0	+0%
Sep 13	Malik Willis	0	0.5	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%17.5 yds	5%17.6 yds
Short	30%7.7 yds	13%8.6 yds	36%6.0 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%15.1 yds#4	4%12.0 yds#27	6%10.1 yds#21
Short	35%5.7 yds#18	15%6.6 yds#18	30%5.2 yds#20

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.5 yds	8%17.8 yds	7%14.8 yds
Short	28%7.7 yds	13%8.9 yds	38%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	5	5.2	26	19.5%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	5	4.2	21	15.9%
4	Ty Johnson RB	3	3.3	10	14.8%
5	Keon Coleman WR	5	3.6	18	13.4%
6	Skyler Bell WR	1	2.0	2	11.1%
7	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
8	James Cook RB	5	2.2	11	8.2%
9	Dawson Knox TE	5	1.8	9	7.6%
10	Ray Davis RB	4	0.5	2	2.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass TDs	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	@ LA	1	Under	1.5	64 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	1	Under	1.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	0	Under	1.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	3	Over	1.5	74 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	2	Over	1.5	58 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	3	Over	1.5	78 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	1	Under	1.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	0	Under	0.5	76 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	0	Under	0.5	50 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	3	Over	1.5	70 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	3	Over	2.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ PIT	1	Under	1.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-20	12	@ HOU	0	Under	0.5	66 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	3	Over	3.5	56 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	2	Over	1.5	65 (96%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	1	Under	1.5	66 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	1	Under	1.5	52 (83%)
2025-10-13	6	@ ATL	2	Over	2.5	57 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	2	Over	2.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	2	Over	1.5	59 (100%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 12m ago.