NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Patrick Mahomes QB

KC vs LAC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

1.5 Pass TDs O -105U -121

Hit rate · All 49%18/37 Odds imply 48.3% Over

Season avg: 2.2
Graph avg: 1.7
Graph median: 1.00–4
Over the close: 39%7/18

2026 per game

Pass Yds259.2▲+3.0

Att32.0▼-3.9

Cmp%64.1%▲+1.3

Pass TD2.2▲+0.7

INT0.5▼-0.3

Rush Yds10.2▼-19.9

Snaps65.2▼-1.5

Snap %100.0%▲+2.6

1.5

2024

1

Sep 05
2

Sep 15
2

Sep 22
1

Sep 29
0

Oct 07
0

Oct 20
2

Oct 27
3

Nov 04
1

Nov 10
3

Nov 17
3

Nov 24
1

Nov 29
1

Dec 08
2

Dec 15
1

Dec 21
3

Dec 25
1

Jan 18
1

Jan 26
3

Feb 09
2025

1

Sep 05
1

Sep 14
1

Sep 21
4

Sep 28
1

Oct 06
3

Oct 12
3

Oct 19
3

Oct 27
0

Nov 02
1

Nov 16
0

Nov 23
4

Nov 27
0

Dec 07
0

Dec 14
2026

2

Sep 14
3

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 40% 8/20 · avg 1.6
Away 59% 10/17 · avg 1.8
vs LAC 0% 0/4 · avg 0.8

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 84% 31/37
O 1.5 Today 49% 18/37
O 2.5 30% 11/37
O 3.5 5% 2/37

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LAC

What LAC allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds214.4#23
Yds/Att7.5#8
Cmp%62.9%#20
Pass TD1.2#24
Pass Att28.6#30

QBs vs LAC · 2026

Each main QB who faced LAC this season: pass tds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.2

Avg diff %-11%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Bo Nix	1	1.0	+0%
Oct 04	Sam Darnold	2	1.2	+60%
Sep 27	Josh Allen	0	1.8	-100%
Sep 20	Kirk Cousins	3	2.2	+33%
Sep 13	Jacoby Brissett	1	2.0	-50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%13.9 yds	5%10.5 yds	8%12.4 yds
Short	28%5.9 yds	17%4.9 yds	38%5.3 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAC defense

LAC defense: Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.8 yds#1	3%12.0 yds#26	4%12.9 yds#9
Short	33%6.1 yds#10	17%6.6 yds#19	34%5.8 yds#13

Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.2 yds	6%13.7 yds	10%10.1 yds
Short	26%6.1 yds	17%5.5 yds	36%6.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	4	5.5	22	18.7%
3	Travis Kelce TE	4	5.5	22	17.3%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	4	4.8	19	14.9%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	4	2.0	8	7.6%
7	Emmett Johnson RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
8	Jalen Royals WR	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Cyrus Allen WR	2	1.0	2	3.9%
10	Jake Briningstool TE	3	0.7	2	2.8%

Game log · 37 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass TDs	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	2	Over	1.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	2	Over	1.5	52 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	3	Over	1.5	80 (100%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	2	Over	1.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LAC	0	Under	0.5	56 (92%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	0	Under	0.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DAL	4	Over	3.5	66 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	0	Under	1.5	96 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ DEN	1	Under	1.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ BUF	0	Under	0.5	60 (100%)
2025-10-27	8	vs WAS	3	Over	2.5	69 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LV	3	Over	3.5	65 (80%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DET	3	Over	3.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-06	5	@ JAX	1	Under	1.5	64 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs BAL	4	Over	3.5	67 (92%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NYG	1	Under	1.5	72 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs PHI	1	Under	1.5	60 (100%)
2025-09-05	1	@ LAC	1	Under	1.5	61 (100%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	@ PHI	3	Over	—	56 (100%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	vs BUF	1	Under	—	66 (100%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	1	Under	—	51 (100%)
2024-12-25	17	@ PIT	3	Over	—	62 (100%)
2024-12-21	16	vs HOU	1	Under	—	74 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	@ CLE	2	Over	—	67 (89%)
2024-12-08	14	vs LAC	1	Under	—	69 (100%)
2024-11-29	13	vs LV	1	Under	—	71 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ CAR	3	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	@ BUF	3	Over	—	55 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs DEN	1	Under	—	68 (100%)
2024-11-04	9	vs TB	3	Over	—	85 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ LV	2	Over	—	72 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	@ SF	0	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-10-07	5	vs NO	0	Under	—	84 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	@ LAC	1	Under	—	62 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ATL	2	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	vs CIN	2	Over	—	65 (100%)
2024-09-05	1	vs BAL	1	Under	—	54 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 1.5Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.