NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Trevor Lawrence QB

JAX vs HOU · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

1.5 Pass TDs O +147U -189

Hit rate · Last 20 55%11/20 Odds imply 38.2% Over

Season avg: 2.0
Graph avg: 1.9
Graph median: 2.00–5
Over the close: 30%6/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds234.8▲+0.7

Att28.6▼-4.2

Cmp%67.1%▲+6.3

Pass TD2.0▲+0.2

INT0.6▼-0.2

Rush Yds11.8▼-9.9

Snaps60.2▼-4.8

Snap %96.6%▼-0.3

1.5

2025

1

Sep 28
1

Oct 06
2

Oct 12
1

Oct 19
0

Nov 02
1

Nov 09
1

Nov 16
3

Nov 23
2

Nov 30
2

Dec 07
5

Dec 14
3

Dec 21
0

Dec 28
3

Jan 04
3

Jan 11
2026

4

Sep 13
0

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
1

Oct 04
2

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 56% 10/18 · avg 1.8
Away 40% 6/15 · avg 1.3
vs HOU 25% 1/4 · avg 0.8

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 85% 17/20
O 1.5 Today 55% 11/20
O 2.5 35% 7/20
O 3.5 10% 2/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs HOU

What HOU allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds231.5#14
Yds/Att7.1#16
Cmp%64.5%#13
Pass TD1.4#18
Pass Att32.7#13

QBs vs HOU · 2026

Each main QB who faced HOU this season: pass tds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.1

Avg diff %+0%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Cam Ward	0	0.8	-100%
Oct 04	Dak Prescott	1	2.0	-50%
Sep 27	Daniel Jones	1	0.5	+100%
Sep 20	Joe Burrow	2	2.2	-11%
Sep 13	Josh Allen	2	1.2	+60%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

JAX offense

JAX offense: Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.4 yds	4%18.1 yds	7%11.5 yds
Short	34%6.8 yds	16%6.6 yds	28%7.9 yds

Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

HOU defense

HOU defense: Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%12.6 yds#11	3%22.5 yds#2	7%13.0 yds#7
Short	28%5.1 yds#28	19%6.9 yds#17	33%4.5 yds#29

Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.4 yds	5%18.1 yds	7%11.5 yds
Short	34%6.8 yds	17%6.6 yds	28%7.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of JAX targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Parker Washington WR	5	7.0	35	25.3%
2	Brenton Strange TE	5	5.2	26	19.2%
3	Jakobi Meyers WR	5	3.6	18	13.6%
4	Brian Thomas Jr. WR	5	3.4	17	12.6%
5	Josh Cameron WR	5	2.4	12	8.3%
6	Bhayshul Tuten RB	5	2.0	10	7.2%
7	Nate Boerkircher TE	4	1.5	6	5.6%
8	LeQuint Allen Jr. RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Ameer Abdullah RB	5	0.6	3	2.4%
10	Quintin Morris TE	4	0.5	2	2.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass TDs	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs PHI	2	Over	1.5	72 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CIN	1	Under	1.5	61 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NE	3	Over	1.5	59 (95%)
2026-09-20	2	@ DEN	0	Under	1.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs CLE	4	Over	1.5	50 (88%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs BUF	3	Over	3.5	56 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs TEN	3	Over	1.5	50 (82%)
2025-12-28	17	@ IND	0	Under	0.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DEN	3	Over	3.5	70 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs NYJ	5	Over	4.5	54 (87%)
2025-12-07	14	vs IND	2	Over	2.5	58 (91%)
2025-11-30	13	@ TEN	2	Over	2.5	60 (95%)
2025-11-23	12	@ ARI	3	Over	2.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs LAC	1	Under	1.5	63 (89%)
2025-11-09	10	@ HOU	1	Under	1.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ LV	0	Under	0.5	80 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LA	1	Under	1.5	77 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	vs SEA	2	Over	2.5	76 (100%)
2025-10-06	5	vs KC	1	Under	1.5	58 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ SF	1	Under	1.5	68 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 4m ago.