NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Brock Purdy QB

SF vs WAS · Mon Oct 19 · 8:15 PM ET

2.5 Pass TDs O +132U -169

Hit rate · All 29%9/31 Odds imply 40.7% Over

Season avg: 2.6
Graph avg: 1.8
Graph median: 2.00–5
Over the close: 62%10/16

2026 per game

Pass Yds239.2▲+5.7

Att28.4▼-2.7

Cmp%69.0%▲+1.8

Pass TD2.6▲+0.6

INT0.4▼-0.8

Rush Yds25.6▲+6.7

Snaps57.8▼-4.6

Snap %97.0%▲+0.2

2.5

2024

0

Sep 09
1

Sep 15
3

Sep 22
1

Sep 29
1

Oct 06
3

Oct 10
0

Oct 20
1

Oct 27
2

Nov 10
1

Nov 17
0

Dec 01
2

Dec 08
0

Dec 12
2

Dec 22
3

Dec 30
2025

2

Sep 07
2

Sep 28
3

Nov 16
1

Nov 24
1

Nov 30
3

Dec 14
5

Dec 22
3

Dec 28
0

Jan 03
2

Jan 11
0

Jan 17
2026

3

Sep 10
2

Sep 20
4

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
2

Oct 11
?

Oct 20

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 24% 4/17 · avg 1.5
Away 36% 5/14 · avg 2.1
vs WAS No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 81% 25/31
O 1.5 58% 18/31
O 2.5 Today 29% 9/31
O 3.5 6% 2/31
O 4.5 3% 1/31

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs WAS

What WAS allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds247.2#8
Yds/Att6.9#19
Cmp%62.1%#23
Pass TD2.4#2
Pass Att35.6#5

QBs vs WAS · 2026

Each main QB who faced WAS this season: pass tds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.8

Avg diff %+179%

Beat their average80% (4/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jameis Winston	3	1.0	+200%
Oct 04	Daniel Jones	0	0.8	-100%
Sep 27	Sam Darnold	4	0.8	+433%
Sep 20	Dak Prescott	4	1.2	+220%
Sep 13	Jalen Hurts	3	1.2	+140%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SF offense

SF offense: Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%8.3 yds	5%29.4 yds	5%11.2 yds
Short	38%6.7 yds	20%6.6 yds	26%5.6 yds

Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

WAS defense

WAS defense: Throws WAS faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%4.0 yds#31	4%18.8 yds#7	8%12.8 yds#10
Short	30%5.3 yds#24	16%8.9 yds#3	34%5.2 yds#22

Throws WAS faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%8.8 yds	6%29.4 yds	4%9.8 yds
Short	38%6.7 yds	20%6.8 yds	26%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of SF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Mike Evans WR	5	6.8	34	24.5%
2	George Kittle TE	5	5.6	28	20.7%
3	Christian McCaffrey RB	5	5.0	25	18.0%
4	Deebo Samuel Sr. WR	5	4.0	20	14.3%
5	Demarcus Robinson WR	2	3.0	6	11.6%
6	Kyle Juszczyk FB	3	2.0	6	8.0%
7	Jordan Watkins WR	1	2.0	2	7.7%
8	Brandin Cooks WR	2	1.5	3	5.4%
9	Jacob Cowing WR	5	1.0	5	3.7%
10	Luke Farrell TE	5	0.8	4	2.7%

Game log · 31 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass TDs	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ SEA	2	Under	1.5	60 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs DEN	2	Under	1.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs ARI	4	Over	1.5	54 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIA	2	Under	1.5	44 (85%)
2026-09-10	1	@ LA	3	Over	1.5	65 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ SEA	0	Under	1.5	51 (85%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ PHI	2	Under	1.5	59 (100%)
2026-01-03	18	vs SEA	0	Under	0.5	42 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs CHI	3	Over	2.5	72 (100%)
2025-12-22	16	@ IND	5	Over	4.5	63 (95%)
2025-12-14	15	vs TEN	3	Over	3.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CLE	1	Under	1.5	63 (94%)
2025-11-24	12	vs CAR	1	Under	1.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ ARI	3	Over	1.5	50 (91%)
2025-09-28	4	vs JAX	2	Under	2.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	@ SEA	2	Under	1.5	76 (100%)
2024-12-30	17	vs DET	3	Over	—	59 (92%)
2024-12-22	16	@ MIA	2	Under	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-12	15	vs LA	0	Under	—	54 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	vs CHI	2	Under	—	57 (93%)
2024-12-01	13	@ BUF	0	Under	—	48 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs SEA	1	Under	—	63 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	@ TB	2	Under	—	64 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs DAL	1	Under	—	68 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs KC	0	Under	—	63 (100%)
2024-10-10	6	@ SEA	3	Over	—	65 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	vs ARI	1	Under	—	64 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	vs NE	1	Under	—	63 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ LA	3	Over	—	71 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	@ MIN	1	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-09-09	1	vs NYJ	0	Under	—	71 (99%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 14m ago.