NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Matthew Stafford QB

LAR vs ARI · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

2.5 Pass TDs O +107U -136

Hit rate · All 35%15/43 Odds imply 45.6% Over

Season avg: 1.8
Graph avg: 2.0
Graph median: 2.00–5
Over the close: 52%13/25

2026 per game

Pass Yds314.4▲+32.2

Att43.2▲+7.4

Cmp%64.4%▲+0.9

Pass TD1.8▼-0.8

INT1.2▲+0.8

Rush Yds4.2▲+3.4

Snaps73.0▲+6.4

Snap %96.8%▼-2.0

2.5

2024

0

Sep 29
1

Oct 06
0

Oct 20
4

Oct 24
2

Nov 03
0

Nov 11
4

Nov 17
2

Nov 24
2

Dec 01
2

Dec 08
0

Dec 12
1

Dec 22
0

Dec 28
2

Jan 13
2

Jan 19
2025

1

Sep 07
2

Sep 14
2

Sep 21
3

Sep 28
3

Oct 02
1

Oct 12
5

Oct 19
4

Nov 02
4

Nov 09
2

Nov 16
3

Nov 23
2

Nov 30
3

Dec 07
2

Dec 14
3

Dec 18
2

Dec 29
4

Jan 04
3

Jan 10
0

Jan 18
3

Jan 25
2026

0

Sep 10
4

Sep 21
2

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
3

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Showing the latest 40 of 43 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 40% 8/20 · avg 2.0
Away 30% 7/23 · avg 1.9
vs ARI 50% 2/4 · avg 1.8

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 79% 34/43
O 1.5 65% 28/43
O 2.5 Today 35% 15/43
O 3.5 16% 7/43
O 4.5 2% 1/43

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds258.8#4
Yds/Att8.3#3
Cmp%66.1%#10
Pass TD2.8#1
Pass Att31.0#25

QBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main QB who faced ARI this season: pass tds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.1

Avg diff %+78%

Beat their average75% (3/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jared Goff	3	2.2	+33%
Oct 04	Jameis Winston	3	1.0	+200%
Sep 27	Brock Purdy	4	2.2	+78%
Sep 13	Justin Herbert	1	1.0	+0%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAR offense

LAR offense: Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.3 yds	3%9.9 yds	15%11.6 yds
Short	23%6.7 yds	18%7.9 yds	33%5.6 yds

Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.5 yds#5	3%14.6 yds#17	10%12.2 yds#11
Short	30%6.1 yds#12	18%8.6 yds#5	31%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.3 yds	3%9.9 yds	15%11.6 yds
Short	23%6.7 yds	17%8.0 yds	33%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of LA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Puka Nacua WR	3	15.0	45	33.9%
2	Davante Adams WR	5	9.0	45	22.6%
3	Kyren Williams RB	5	6.6	33	14.6%
4	Tyler Higbee TE	4	6.2	25	13.2%
5	Terrance Ferguson TE	3	4.0	12	12.6%
6	Konata Mumpfield WR	4	3.5	14	8.2%
7	Colby Parkinson TE	4	1.8	7	5.0%
8	Blake Corum RB	5	2.2	11	4.6%
9	Davis Allen TE	5	1.8	9	4.2%
10	Ronnie Rivers RB	1	1.0	1	3.7%

Game log · 43 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass TDs	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	vs BUF	3	Over	2.5	82 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ PHI	0	Under	1.5	84 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DEN	2	Under	1.5	86 (100%)
2026-09-21	2	vs NYG	4	Over	1.5	62 (100%)
2026-09-10	1	vs SF	0	Under	1.5	51 (84%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ SEA	3	Over	1.5	61 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ CHI	0	Under	2.5	78 (100%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	@ CAR	3	Over	2.5	76 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs ARI	4	Over	2.5	72 (96%)
2025-12-29	17	@ ATL	2	Under	2.5	65 (100%)
2025-12-18	16	@ SEA	3	Over	1.5	92 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs DET	2	Under	1.5	72 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ARI	3	Over	3.5	58 (83%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CAR	2	Under	2.5	52 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs TB	3	Over	3.5	56 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SEA	2	Under	1.5	51 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SF	4	Over	3.5	69 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs NO	4	Over	4.5	80 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	@ JAX	5	Over	1.5	67 (96%)
2025-10-12	6	@ BAL	1	Under	1.5	53 (100%)
2025-10-02	5	vs SF	3	Over	3.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs IND	3	Over	2.5	75 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ PHI	2	Under	2.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ TEN	2	Under	1.5	61 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	vs HOU	1	Under	1.5	60 (100%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	@ PHI	2	Under	—	71 (100%)
2025-01-13	19 (P)	vs MIN	2	Under	—	53 (100%)
2024-12-28	17	vs ARI	0	Under	—	57 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	@ NYJ	1	Under	—	52 (100%)
2024-12-12	15	@ SF	0	Under	—	65 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	vs BUF	2	Under	—	77 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	@ NO	2	Under	—	56 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	vs PHI	2	Under	—	64 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	@ NE	4	Over	—	52 (100%)
2024-11-11	10	vs MIA	0	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	@ SEA	2	Under	—	77 (100%)
2024-10-24	8	vs MIN	4	Over	—	72 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs LV	0	Under	—	55 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	vs GB	1	Under	—	78 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	@ CHI	0	Under	—	61 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	vs SF	1	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	@ ARI	0	Under	—	52 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	@ DET	1	Under	—	78 (100%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.