NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Aaron Rodgers QB

PIT vs TB · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

1.5 Pass TDs O +138U -176

Hit rate · Last 20 40%8/20 Odds imply 39.7% Over

Season avg: 2.0
Graph avg: 1.4
Graph median: 1.00–4
Over the close: 31%5/16

2026 per game

Pass Yds246.8▲+42.8

Att36.8▲+5.6

Cmp%59.8%▼-5.0

Pass TD2.0▲+0.6

INT0.8▲+0.3

Rush Yds3.6+0.0

Snaps65.2▲+8.2

Snap %98.6%▲+3.3

1.5

2025

2

Sep 21
1

Sep 28
2

Oct 12
4

Oct 16
2

Oct 26
1

Nov 02
1

Nov 09
1

Nov 16
0

Nov 30
1

Dec 07
2

Dec 15
1

Dec 21
0

Dec 28
1

Jan 04
0

Jan 12
2026

1

Sep 13
0

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
3

Oct 01
3

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 52% 11/21 · avg 1.6
Away 44% 8/18 · avg 1.6
vs TB No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 80% 16/20
O 1.5 Today 40% 8/20
O 2.5 20% 4/20
O 3.5 5% 1/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs TB

What TB allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds231.9#13
Yds/Att7.3#12
Cmp%66.5%#6
Pass TD1.6#13
Pass Att31.9#16

QBs vs TB · 2026

Each main QB who faced TB this season: pass tds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.2

Avg diff %+30%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 08	Dak Prescott	1	2.0	-50%
Oct 04	Jordan Love	2	2.0	+0%
Sep 27	Kyler Murray	1	0.3	+200%
Sep 20	Deshaun Watson	2	1.2	+60%
Sep 13	Joe Burrow	1	2.5	-60%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TB defense

TB defense: Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#20	5%12.7 yds#22	6%9.3 yds#24
Short	34%7.0 yds#4	16%7.7 yds#13	32%5.8 yds#12

Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	29%5.2 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	5	7.4	37	20.8%
2	Pat Freiermuth TE	5	5.2	26	15.2%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	5	5.2	26	15.1%
4	Germie Bernard WR	4	5.0	20	15.0%
5	Roman Wilson WR	5	5.0	25	14.1%
6	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	5	3.2	16	9.3%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass TDs	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs IND	3	Over	1.5	58 (97%)
2026-10-01	4	@ CLE	3	Over	1.5	72 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CIN	3	Over	1.5	62 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	0	Under	1.5	67 (96%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	1	Under	1.5	67 (100%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	vs HOU	0	Under	0.5	51 (89%)
2026-01-04	18	vs BAL	1	Under	0.5	75 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CLE	0	Under	0.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	1	Under	1.5	74 (100%)
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	2	Over	2.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	1	Under	1.5	52 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	vs BUF	0	Under	0.5	36 (84%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CIN	1	Under	1.5	37 (57%)
2025-11-09	10	@ LAC	1	Under	1.5	52 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs IND	1	Under	1.5	62 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	vs GB	2	Over	—	63 (100%)
2025-10-16	7	@ CIN	4	Over	3.5	57 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	vs CLE	2	Over	—	56 (95%)
2025-09-28	4	vs MIN	1	Under	—	53 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NE	2	Over	—	54 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 0.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.