NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Bryce Young QB

CAR vs PHI · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

1.5 Pass TDs O +132U -170

Hit rate · All 40%14/35 Odds imply 40.6% Over

Season avg: 2.2
Graph avg: 1.4
Graph median: 1.00–3
Over the close: 45%9/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds317.0▲+124.4

Att40.5▲+10.0

Cmp%62.3%▼-0.4

Pass TD2.2▲+0.8

INT0.5▼-0.2

Rush Yds4.8▼-9.4

Snaps68.8▲+8.1

Snap %96.0%▼-0.9

1.5

2024

0

Sep 08
0

Sep 15
0

Oct 06
0

Oct 20
2

Oct 27
1

Nov 03
1

Nov 10
1

Nov 24
1

Dec 01
1

Dec 08
1

Dec 15
2

Dec 22
2

Dec 29
3

Jan 05
2025

1

Sep 07
3

Sep 14
0

Sep 21
1

Sep 28
2

Oct 05
3

Oct 12
1

Oct 19
0

Nov 02
0

Nov 09
3

Nov 16
1

Nov 24
3

Nov 30
1

Dec 14
2

Dec 21
0

Dec 28
2

Jan 03
1

Jan 10
2026

3

Sep 13
3

Sep 20
1

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 41% 7/17 · avg 1.4
Away 39% 7/18 · avg 1.4
vs PHI 0% 0/1 · avg 1.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 77% 27/35
O 1.5 Today 40% 14/35
O 2.5 20% 7/35
O 3.5 0% 0/35

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs PHI

What PHI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds209.9#24
Yds/Att6.7#22
Cmp%61.5%#26
Pass TD0.9#30
Pass Att31.4#21

QBs vs PHI · 2026

Each main QB who faced PHI this season: pass tds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.4

Avg diff %+25%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Trevor Lawrence	2	2.0	+0%
Oct 04	Matthew Stafford	0	2.2	-100%
Sep 20	Cam Ward	0	0.8	-100%
Sep 13	Jayden Daniels	2	0.5	+300%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CAR offense

CAR offense: Share of CAR pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.2 yds	4%16.7 yds	6%17.1 yds
Short	33%5.0 yds	15%8.5 yds	34%5.1 yds

Share of CAR pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PHI defense

PHI defense: Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%10.4 yds#15	3%21.6 yds#3	7%11.8 yds#14
Short	33%5.7 yds#17	20%6.3 yds#22	32%5.2 yds#23

Throws PHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.2 yds	4%16.7 yds	7%17.1 yds
Short	33%5.1 yds	15%8.5 yds	34%5.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of CAR targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tetairoa McMillan WR	4	9.8	39	26.9%
2	Jalen Coker WR	3	7.3	22	21.4%
3	Darren Waller TE	4	4.8	19	12.4%
4	Tommy Tremble TE	4	3.8	15	10.2%
5	Xavier Legette WR	2	3.0	6	9.2%
6	John Metchie III WR	3	3.3	10	8.2%
7	Chuba Hubbard RB	4	2.8	11	7.4%
8	Brycen Tremayne WR	4	2.2	9	5.5%
9	Mitchell Evans TE	4	1.8	7	4.7%
10	Jonathon Brooks RB	2	1.5	3	4.5%

Game log · 35 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass TDs	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DET	2	Over	1.5	75 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ CLE	1	Under	1.5	77 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ ATL	3	Over	1.5	62 (94%)
2026-09-13	1	vs CHI	3	Over	1.5	61 (90%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs LA	1	Under	0.5	67 (100%)
2026-01-03	18	@ TB	2	Over	1.5	51 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs SEA	0	Under	0.5	53 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs TB	2	Over	2.5	54 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NO	1	Under	1.5	57 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LA	3	Over	2.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-24	12	@ SF	1	Under	1.5	46 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ ATL	3	Over	1.5	80 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NO	0	Under	0.5	53 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ GB	0	Under	—	58 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	@ NYJ	1	Under	1.5	49 (69%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DAL	3	Over	3.5	67 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs MIA	2	Over	1.5	70 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NE	1	Under	1.5	56 (81%)
2025-09-21	3	vs ATL	0	Under	0.5	57 (98%)
2025-09-14	2	@ ARI	3	Over	0.5	85 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	@ JAX	1	Under	1.5	64 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	@ ATL	3	Over	—	67 (100%)
2024-12-29	17	@ TB	2	Over	—	47 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	vs ARI	2	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs DAL	1	Under	—	55 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	@ PHI	1	Under	—	71 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	vs TB	1	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	vs KC	1	Under	—	62 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NYG	1	Under	—	60 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	vs NO	1	Under	—	53 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ DEN	2	Over	—	61 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	@ WAS	0	Under	—	3 (7%)
2024-10-06	5	@ CHI	0	Under	—	9 (15%)
2024-09-15	2	vs LAC	0	Under	—	48 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	@ NO	0	Under	—	54 (92%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 3m ago.