NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jayden Daniels QB

WAS vs SF · Mon Oct 19 · 8:15 PM ET

1.5 Pass TDs O +113U -145

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply 44.2% Over

Season avg: 1.0
Graph avg: 1.6
Graph median: 1.50–5
Over the close: 25%2/8

2026 per game

Pass Yds153.0▼-27.3

Att25.3▼-1.5

Cmp%60.5%▼-0.1

Pass TD1.0▼-0.1

INT0.0▼-0.4

Rush Yds67.7▲+28.0

Snaps57.0▼-0.9

Snap %85.0%▼-5.3

1.5

2024

1

Nov 14
2

Nov 24
3

Dec 01
2

Dec 15
5

Dec 22
3

Dec 29
0

Jan 05
2

Jan 12
2

Jan 18
1

Jan 26
2025

1

Sep 07
2

Sep 11
1

Oct 05
3

Oct 13
1

Oct 19
0

Nov 02
0

Dec 07
2026

2

Sep 13
1

Sep 20
0

Oct 11
?

Oct 20

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 38% 5/13 · avg 1.5
Away 47% 8/17 · avg 1.3
vs SF No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 80% 16/20
O 1.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 2.5 20% 4/20
O 3.5 5% 1/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs SF

What SF allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds215.1#22
Yds/Att6.5#24
Cmp%64.2%#14
Pass TD1.1#25
Pass Att33.0#11

QBs vs SF · 2026

Each main QB who faced SF this season: pass tds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.3

Avg diff %+36%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Sam Darnold	1	1.5	-33%
Oct 04	Bo Nix	1	1.0	+0%
Sep 27	Jacoby Brissett	2	1.8	+14%
Sep 20	Malik Willis	1	0.2	+300%
Sep 10	Matthew Stafford	0	2.2	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

WAS offense

WAS offense: Share of WAS pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.9 yds	4%17.9 yds	10%5.0 yds
Short	30%5.4 yds	14%6.5 yds	34%5.6 yds

Share of WAS pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

SF defense

SF defense: Throws SF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%7.0 yds#28	3%13.1 yds#21	10%11.0 yds#16
Short	35%6.9 yds#5	12%4.5 yds#32	34%5.0 yds#25

Throws SF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%11.6 yds	2%18.2 yds	11%9.5 yds
Short	29%5.7 yds	17%7.1 yds	37%4.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of WAS targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Stefon Diggs WR	4	7.8	31	24.3%
2	Terry McLaurin WR	4	6.5	26	21.9%
3	Chig Okonkwo TE	3	4.3	13	15.8%
4	Antonio Williams WR	5	4.4	22	14.2%
5	Treylon Burks WR	4	2.8	11	9.9%
6	Dyami Brown WR	5	3.0	15	9.5%
7	Rachaad White RB	4	2.5	10	8.1%
8	John Bates TE	3	1.7	5	6.0%
9	Austin Ekeler RB	2	1.5	3	5.0%
10	Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB	5	1.4	7	4.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass TDs	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs NYG	0	Under	1.5	62 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ DAL	1	Under	1.5	39 (55%)
2026-09-13	1	@ PHI	2	Over	0.5	70 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ MIN	0	Under	0.5	39 (75%)
2025-11-02	9	vs SEA	0	Under	—	57 (88%)
2025-10-19	7	@ DAL	1	Under	1.5	46 (69%)
2025-10-13	6	vs CHI	3	Over	3.5	65 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ LAC	1	Under	0.5	59 (100%)
2025-09-11	2	@ GB	2	Over	—	69 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	vs NYG	1	Under	1.5	70 (100%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	@ PHI	1	Under	—	75 (95%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	@ DET	2	Over	—	75 (100%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	@ TB	2	Over	—	73 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	@ DAL	0	Under	—	26 (45%)
2024-12-29	17	vs ATL	3	Over	—	83 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	vs PHI	5	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	@ NO	2	Over	—	78 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	vs TEN	3	Over	—	83 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	vs DAL	2	Over	—	70 (100%)
2024-11-14	11	@ PHI	1	Under	—	66 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 0.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.