NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kirk Cousins QB

LV vs BUF · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

1.5 Pass TDs O -149U +116

Hit rate · All 38%11/29 Odds imply 56.4% Over

Season avg: 2.4
Graph avg: 1.4
Graph median: 1.00–4
Over the close: 40%6/15

2026 per game

Pass Yds253.8▲+81.7

Att34.4▲+7.5

Cmp%65.1%▲+3.4

Pass TD2.4▲+1.4

INT0.8▲+0.3

Rush Yds-0.4▼-1.1

Snaps67.0▲+12.7

Snap %96.6%▲+10.5

1.5

2024

1

Sep 08
2

Sep 16
1

Sep 22
0

Sep 29
4

Oct 03
1

Oct 13
1

Oct 20
4

Oct 27
3

Nov 03
0

Nov 10
0

Nov 17
0

Dec 01
0

Dec 08
1

Dec 16
2025

0

Sep 21
0

Oct 26
0

Nov 16
2

Nov 23
1

Nov 30
0

Dec 07
3

Dec 11
2

Dec 21
1

Dec 29
1

Jan 04
2026

3

Sep 13
3

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
1

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 29% 4/14 · avg 1.2
Away 47% 7/15 · avg 1.5
vs BUF No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 69% 20/29
O 1.5 Today 38% 11/29
O 2.5 24% 7/29
O 3.5 7% 2/29

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs BUF

What BUF allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds229.2#15
Yds/Att6.5#26
Cmp%62.5%#21
Pass TD2.2#3
Pass Att35.5#6

QBs vs BUF · 2026

Each main QB who faced BUF this season: pass tds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.2

Avg diff %+88%

Beat their average80% (4/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Matthew Stafford	3	1.5	+100%
Oct 04	Drake Maye	3	1.2	+140%
Sep 27	Justin Herbert	1	1.0	+0%
Sep 17	Jared Goff	4	2.0	+100%
Sep 13	C.J. Stroud	2	1.0	+100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LV offense

LV offense: Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.5 yds	3%5.3 yds	5%7.0 yds
Short	30%5.6 yds	19%7.0 yds	35%5.8 yds

Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BUF defense

BUF defense: Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.5 yds#14	4%8.1 yds#32	9%9.2 yds#25
Short	30%5.5 yds#22	16%6.5 yds#20	35%5.4 yds#16

Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%11.3 yds	3%5.4 yds	7%7.4 yds
Short	31%6.3 yds	22%7.4 yds	28%6.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of LV targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Brock Bowers TE	3	11.3	34	31.3%
2	Ashton Jeanty RB	5	6.0	30	17.6%
3	Tre Tucker WR	5	5.6	28	16.4%
4	Michael Mayer TE	5	5.0	25	14.3%
5	Jalen Nailor WR	3	3.7	11	12.5%
6	Jack Bech WR	2	3.0	6	10.3%
7	Cody White WR	5	2.8	14	8.0%
8	Malik Benson WR	5	1.6	8	5.0%
9	Ian Thomas TE	3	1.3	4	3.5%
10	Deven Thompkins WR	1	1.0	1	2.8%

Game log · 29 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass TDs	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NE	1	Under	1.5	50 (83%)
2026-10-04	4	vs KC	2	Over	1.5	84 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NO	3	Over	1.5	70 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ LAC	3	Over	1.5	63 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs MIA	3	Over	1.5	68 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NO	1	Under	1.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-29	17	vs LA	1	Under	1.5	53 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ ARI	2	Over	2.5	77 (100%)
2025-12-11	15	@ TB	3	Over	2.5	71 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs SEA	0	Under	0.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ NYJ	1	Under	1.5	69 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	@ NO	2	Over	1.5	56 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CAR	0	Under	0.5	25 (38%)
2025-10-26	8	vs MIA	0	Under	1.5	50 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CAR	0	Under	0.5	15 (23%)
2024-12-16	15	@ LV	1	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	@ MIN	0	Under	—	74 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	vs LAC	0	Under	—	81 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	@ DEN	0	Under	—	46 (78%)
2024-11-10	10	@ NO	0	Under	—	78 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	vs DAL	3	Over	—	57 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ TB	4	Over	—	62 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs SEA	1	Under	—	66 (90%)
2024-10-13	6	@ CAR	1	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-10-03	5	vs TB	4	Over	—	87 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	vs NO	0	Under	—	56 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	vs KC	1	Under	—	61 (100%)
2024-09-16	2	@ PHI	2	Over	—	61 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	vs PIT	1	Under	—	56 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 2.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 3m ago.