NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Bo Nix QB

DEN vs LAC · Sun Oct 11 · 4:05 PM ET

1.5 Pass TDs O +111U -142

Hit rate · Last 20 35%7/20 Odds imply 44.7% Over

Season avg: 1.2
Graph avg: 1.4
Graph median: 1.00–4
Over the close: 42%8/19

2026 per game

Pass Yds204.8▼-29.1

Att33.8▼-2.8

Cmp%60.0%▼-2.9

Pass TD1.2▼-0.3

INT0.8▲+0.1

Rush Yds6.2▼-15.1

Snaps61.2▼-5.9

Snap %99.5%▼-0.2

2025

1

Sep 21
2

Sep 29
1

Oct 05
1

Oct 12
2

Oct 19
4

Oct 26
2

Nov 02
1

Nov 06
0

Nov 16
1

Nov 30
0

Dec 07
4

Dec 14
1

Dec 21
1

Dec 25
0

Jan 04
3

Jan 17
2026

1

Sep 14
1

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
1

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 60% 12/20 · avg 2.0
Away 30% 6/20 · avg 1.1
vs LAC 50% 2/4 · avg 1.2

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 85% 17/20
O 1.5 Today 35% 7/20
O 2.5 15% 3/20
O 3.5 10% 2/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LAC

What LAC allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds226.1#18
Yds/Att7.6#9
Cmp%61.9%#20
Pass TD1.1#26
Pass Att29.9#28

QBs vs LAC · 2026

Each main QB who faced LAC this season: pass tds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.6

Avg diff %-32%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Sam Darnold	2	2.0	+0%
Sep 27	Josh Allen	0	2.0	-100%
Sep 20	Kirk Cousins	3	2.7	+13%
Sep 13	Jacoby Brissett	1	1.7	-40%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.7 yds	2%8.2 yds	6%9.9 yds
Short	34%5.7 yds	11%4.5 yds	38%4.8 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAC defense

LAC defense: Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%13.3 yds#7	3%9.6 yds#30	5%12.7 yds#8
Short	33%6.0 yds#12	16%7.3 yds#13	32%6.4 yds#5

Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%12.9 yds	1%9.8 yds	5%8.6 yds
Short	37%5.8 yds	12%4.7 yds	36%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	RJ Harvey RB	3	7.0	21	21.2%
2	Jaylen Waddle WR	4	6.5	26	21.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	4	5.5	22	17.7%
4	Evan Engram TE	4	3.2	13	10.4%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
7	Tyler Badie RB	3	2.0	6	6.3%
8	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%
9	Jonah Coleman RB	2	1.5	3	5.2%
10	Troy Franklin WR	3	1.3	4	4.6%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass TDs	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	1	Under	1.5	65 (98%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	2	Over	1.5	67 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs JAX	1	Under	1.5	62 (100%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	1	Under	1.5	51 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs BUF	3	Over	1.5	72 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs LAC	0	Under	0.5	59 (100%)
2025-12-25	17	@ KC	1	Under	0.5	72 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs JAX	1	Under	1.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs GB	4	Over	—	68 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ LV	0	Under	0.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ WAS	1	Under	1.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs KC	0	Under	0.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-06	10	vs LV	1	Under	1.5	61 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ HOU	2	Over	1.5	63 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	vs DAL	4	Over	2.5	59 (94%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NYG	2	Over	1.5	81 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NYJ	1	Under	1.5	60 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ PHI	1	Under	0.5	74 (100%)
2025-09-29	4	vs CIN	2	Over	1.5	81 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ LAC	1	Under	1.5	52 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 0.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.