NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

C.J. Stroud QB

HOU vs TEN · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

1.5 Pass TDs O +108U -138

Hit rate · All 33%13/39 Odds imply 45.3% Over

Season avg: 1.2
Graph avg: 1.2
Graph median: 1.00–4
Over the close: 26%5/19

2026 per game

Pass Yds285.2▲+66.3

Att37.8▲+6.4

Cmp%61.6%▼-1.0

Pass TD1.2▼-0.1

INT0.0▼-0.8

Rush Yds16.5▲+2.8

Snaps67.0▲+3.8

Snap %100.0%▲+7.7

2024

2

Sep 08
1

Sep 15
1

Sep 22
2

Sep 29
1

Oct 06
3

Oct 13
0

Oct 20
1

Oct 27
0

Oct 31
1

Nov 10
0

Nov 18
2

Nov 24
1

Dec 01
2

Dec 15
2

Dec 21
0

Dec 25
1

Jan 05
1

Jan 11
0

Jan 18
2025

0

Sep 07
1

Sep 15
1

Sep 21
2

Sep 28
4

Oct 05
1

Oct 20
2

Oct 26
0

Nov 02
0

Nov 30
1

Dec 07
3

Dec 14
1

Dec 21
2

Dec 27
1

Jan 04
1

Jan 12
1

Jan 18
2026

2

Sep 13
0

Sep 20
1

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 42% 8/19 · avg 1.3
Away 25% 5/20 · avg 1.1
vs TEN 67% 2/3 · avg 1.7

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 77% 30/39
O 1.5 Today 33% 13/39
O 2.5 8% 3/39
O 3.5 3% 1/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds250.0#6
Yds/Att8.5#2
Cmp%69.4%#3
Pass TD1.7#8
Pass Att29.4#30

QBs vs TEN · 2026

Each main QB who faced TEN this season: pass tds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.5

Avg diff %-32%

Beat their average50% (2/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Lamar Jackson	2	1.3	+50%
Sep 27	Jameis Winston	0	1.5	-100%
Sep 20	Jalen Hurts	2	1.7	+20%
Sep 13	Geno Smith	0	1.7	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

HOU offense

HOU offense: Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.3 yds	3%23.0 yds	8%8.5 yds
Short	24%4.9 yds	22%9.0 yds	36%5.7 yds

Share of HOU pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.7 yds#12	4%24.2 yds#3	8%14.8 yds#5
Short	33%6.5 yds#7	16%9.4 yds#3	32%5.8 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.3 yds	3%23.0 yds	8%8.5 yds
Short	24%5.0 yds	22%9.0 yds	36%5.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of HOU targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Nico Collins WR	2	9.0	18	28.9%
2	Xavier Hutchinson WR	4	6.5	26	19.4%
3	Dalton Schultz TE	4	6.8	27	17.3%
4	Jared Wayne WR	3	4.0	12	10.9%
5	Kayshon Boutte WR	4	3.2	13	9.7%
6	Jaylin Noel WR	4	3.0	12	8.7%
7	Foster Moreau TE	4	2.2	9	7.3%
8	Woody Marks RB	4	2.2	9	5.6%
9	David Montgomery RB	4	1.8	7	5.0%
10	Lewis Bond WR	1	1.0	1	4.0%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass TDs	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DAL	2	Over	1.5	55 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ IND	1	Under	1.5	54 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CIN	0	Under	1.5	80 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BUF	2	Over	1.5	79 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ NE	1	Under	1.5	75 (100%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	@ PIT	1	Under	1.5	68 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs IND	1	Under	1.5	44 (65%)
2025-12-27	17	@ LAC	2	Over	2.5	65 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LV	1	Under	0.5	65 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs ARI	3	Over	2.5	67 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ KC	1	Under	1.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ IND	0	Under	0.5	76 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs DEN	0	Under	0.5	23 (32%)
2025-10-26	8	vs SF	2	Over	2.5	80 (100%)
2025-10-20	7	@ SEA	1	Under	—	76 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BAL	4	Over	1.5	56 (80%)
2025-09-28	4	vs TEN	2	Over	2.5	71 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ JAX	1	Under	1.5	63 (100%)
2025-09-15	2	vs TB	1	Under	1.5	49 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	@ LA	0	Under	0.5	63 (100%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	@ KC	0	Under	—	68 (100%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	1	Under	—	73 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	@ TEN	1	Under	—	11 (18%)
2024-12-25	17	vs BAL	0	Under	—	49 (88%)
2024-12-21	16	@ KC	2	Over	—	59 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs MIA	2	Over	—	50 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	@ JAX	1	Under	—	63 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	vs TEN	2	Over	—	56 (100%)
2024-11-18	11	@ DAL	0	Under	—	64 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs DET	1	Under	—	68 (100%)
2024-10-31	9	@ NYJ	0	Under	—	79 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs IND	1	Under	—	71 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	@ GB	0	Under	—	64 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	@ NE	3	Over	—	63 (95%)
2024-10-06	5	vs BUF	1	Under	—	68 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	vs JAX	2	Over	—	75 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ MIN	1	Under	—	54 (81%)
2024-09-15	2	vs CHI	1	Under	—	62 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	@ IND	2	Over	—	79 (100%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 14m ago.