NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Josh Allen QB

BUF vs LAR · Mon Oct 12 · 8:15 PM ET

1.5 Pass TDs O -116U -110

Hit rate · Last 20 55%11/20 Odds imply 50.6% Over

Season avg: 1.5
Graph avg: 1.6
Graph median: 2.00–3
Over the close: 40%8/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds259.8▲+25.1

Att29.8▲+0.1

Cmp%66.4%▼-3.3

Pass TD1.5▼-0.1

INT0.8▲+0.1

Rush Yds29.5▼-8.2

Snaps64.2▼-1.0

Snap %100.0%▲+1.9

2025

3

Sep 18
2

Sep 28
2

Oct 05
2

Oct 13
1

Oct 26
1

Nov 02
2

Nov 09
3

Nov 16
0

Nov 20
1

Nov 30
3

Dec 07
3

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
0

Dec 28
1

Jan 11
3

Jan 17
2026

2

Sep 13
3

Sep 17
0

Sep 27
1

Oct 04
?

Oct 13

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 67% 14/21 · avg 1.9
Away 50% 10/20 · avg 1.4
vs LAR 100% 1/1 · avg 3.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 80% 16/20
O 1.5 Today 55% 11/20
O 2.5 30% 6/20
O 3.5 0% 0/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds212.1#22
Yds/Att6.4#23
Cmp%58.8%#28
Pass TD1.8#7
Pass Att33.0#13

QBs vs LAR · 2026

Each main QB who faced LAR this season: pass tds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.0

Avg diff %+8%

Beat their average75% (3/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Jalen Hurts	2	1.7	+20%
Sep 27	Bo Nix	2	1.0	+100%
Sep 21	Jameis Winston	0	1.5	-100%
Sep 10	Brock Purdy	3	2.7	+13%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%18.7 yds	7%16.8 yds
Short	29%7.2 yds	13%7.3 yds	37%5.8 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	4%16.3 yds#14	8%6.9 yds#30
Short	31%6.0 yds#11	20%4.6 yds#31	30%5.8 yds#12

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%5.2 yds	7%17.0 yds	7%15.6 yds
Short	29%8.1 yds	12%7.4 yds	38%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	4	5.8	23	20.3%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	4	4.8	19	17.1%
4	Keon Coleman WR	4	4.0	16	14.0%
5	Ty Johnson RB	2	3.0	6	11.0%
6	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
7	James Cook RB	4	2.5	10	8.9%
8	Dawson Knox TE	4	1.5	6	5.3%
9	Jackson Hawes TE	1	1.0	1	3.8%
10	Ray Davis RB	3	0.3	1	1.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass TDs	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	1	Under	1.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	0	Under	1.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	3	Over	1.5	74 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	2	Over	1.5	58 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	3	Over	1.5	78 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	1	Under	1.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	0	Under	0.5	76 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	0	Under	0.5	50 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	3	Over	1.5	70 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	3	Over	2.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ PIT	1	Under	1.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-20	12	@ HOU	0	Under	0.5	66 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	3	Over	3.5	56 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	2	Over	1.5	65 (96%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	1	Under	1.5	66 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	1	Under	1.5	52 (83%)
2025-10-13	6	@ ATL	2	Over	2.5	57 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	2	Over	2.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	2	Over	1.5	59 (100%)
2025-09-18	3	vs MIA	3	Over	2.5	60 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 1.5Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.