NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Aaron Rodgers QB

PIT vs IND · Sun Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET

1.5 Pass TDs O +101U -129

Hit rate · Last 20 35%7/20 Odds imply 46.9% Over

Season avg: 1.8
Graph avg: 1.4
Graph median: 1.00–4
Over the close: 27%4/15

2026 per game

Pass Yds249.8▲+45.8

Att38.2▲+7.0

Cmp%57.5%▼-7.3

Pass TD1.8▲+0.3

INT1.0▲+0.5

Rush Yds3.0▼-0.6

Snaps67.0▲+10.0

Snap %99.0%▲+3.7

2025

1

Sep 14
2

Sep 21
1

Sep 28
2

Oct 12
4

Oct 16
2

Oct 26
1

Nov 02
1

Nov 09
1

Nov 16
0

Nov 30
1

Dec 07
2

Dec 15
1

Dec 21
0

Dec 28
1

Jan 04
0

Jan 12
2026

1

Sep 13
0

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
3

Oct 01
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 50% 10/20 · avg 1.6
Away 44% 8/18 · avg 1.6
vs IND 50% 1/2 · avg 1.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 80% 16/20
O 1.5 Today 35% 7/20
O 2.5 15% 3/20
O 3.5 5% 1/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs IND

What IND allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds266.2#2
Yds/Att7.8#6
Cmp%61.6%#22
Pass TD1.4#19
Pass Att34.1#7

QBs vs IND · 2026

Each main QB who faced IND this season: pass tds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.5

Avg diff %-29%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Marcus Mariota	0	2.0	-100%
Sep 27	C.J. Stroud	1	1.3	-25%
Sep 20	Patrick Mahomes	3	2.0	+50%
Sep 13	Lamar Jackson	1	1.7	-40%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.8 yds	4%14.4 yds	9%7.4 yds
Short	28%5.0 yds	18%7.8 yds	34%5.0 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.5 yds#10	3%12.3 yds#24	10%11.7 yds#13
Short	27%6.2 yds#10	20%9.0 yds#4	33%6.0 yds#7

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.8 yds	4%14.4 yds	9%7.4 yds
Short	28%5.1 yds	18%7.8 yds	34%5.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	4	8.2	33	22.6%
2	Roman Wilson WR	4	6.0	24	16.8%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	4	5.0	20	13.8%
4	Pat Freiermuth TE	4	4.8	19	13.2%
5	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
6	Germie Bernard WR	3	3.7	11	10.0%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	4	3.2	13	9.1%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass TDs	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-01	4	@ CLE	3	Over	1.5	72 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CIN	3	Over	1.5	62 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	0	Under	1.5	67 (96%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	1	Under	1.5	67 (100%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	vs HOU	0	Under	0.5	51 (89%)
2026-01-04	18	vs BAL	1	Under	0.5	75 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CLE	0	Under	0.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	1	Under	1.5	74 (100%)
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	2	Over	2.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	1	Under	1.5	52 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	vs BUF	0	Under	0.5	36 (84%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CIN	1	Under	1.5	37 (57%)
2025-11-09	10	@ LAC	1	Under	1.5	52 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs IND	1	Under	1.5	62 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	vs GB	2	Over	—	63 (100%)
2025-10-16	7	@ CIN	4	Over	3.5	57 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	vs CLE	2	Over	—	56 (95%)
2025-09-28	4	vs MIN	1	Under	—	53 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NE	2	Over	—	54 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs SEA	1	Under	—	59 (95%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 1.5Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 14m ago.