NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Brock Purdy QB

SF vs SEA · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

1.5 Pass TDs O +111U -141

Hit rate · Last 20 70%14/20 Odds imply 44.8% Over

Season avg: 2.8
Graph avg: 2.0
Graph median: 2.00–5
Over the close: 60%9/15

2026 per game

Pass Yds251.8▲+18.2

Att28.2▼-2.8

Cmp%69.9%▲+2.7

Pass TD2.8▲+0.8

INT0.2▼-0.9

Rush Yds30.5▲+11.6

Snaps57.2▼-5.1

Snap %96.2%▼-0.6

2024

0

Dec 01
2

Dec 08
0

Dec 12
2

Dec 22
3

Dec 30
2025

2

Sep 07
2

Sep 28
3

Nov 16
1

Nov 24
1

Nov 30
3

Dec 14
5

Dec 22
3

Dec 28
0

Jan 03
2

Jan 11
0

Jan 17
2026

3

Sep 10
2

Sep 20
4

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 47% 8/17 · avg 1.5
Away 69% 9/13 · avg 2.1
vs SEA 40% 2/5 · avg 1.2

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 80% 16/20
O 1.5 Today 70% 14/20
O 2.5 35% 7/20
O 3.5 10% 2/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs SEA

What SEA allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds209.6#25
Yds/Att6.3#29
Cmp%62.0%#19
Pass TD1.4#17
Pass Att33.2#9

QBs vs SEA · 2026

Each main QB who faced SEA this season: pass tds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.5

Avg diff %+115%

Beat their average25% (1/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Justin Herbert	1	1.0	+0%
Sep 27	Marcus Mariota	3	0.5	+500%
Sep 20	Jacoby Brissett	1	1.7	-40%
Sep 09	Drake Maye	1	1.0	+0%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SF offense

SF offense: Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%8.8 yds	5%30.1 yds	4%12.2 yds
Short	38%7.1 yds	19%6.8 yds	27%5.7 yds

Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

SEA defense

SEA defense: Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.5 yds#24	3%30.0 yds#1	9%10.2 yds#23
Short	31%5.1 yds#27	18%4.9 yds#30	32%4.6 yds#30

Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.3 yds	5%30.1 yds	4%10.8 yds
Short	39%7.1 yds	18%7.0 yds	27%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of SF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Mike Evans WR	4	6.0	24	21.4%
2	George Kittle TE	4	5.5	22	20.3%
3	Christian McCaffrey RB	4	5.5	22	19.8%
4	Deebo Samuel Sr. WR	4	4.2	17	15.1%
5	Demarcus Robinson WR	2	3.0	6	11.6%
6	Kyle Juszczyk FB	3	2.0	6	8.0%
7	Jordan Watkins WR	1	2.0	2	7.7%
8	Brandin Cooks WR	1	1.0	1	3.4%
9	Jacob Cowing WR	4	0.8	3	2.8%
10	Luke Farrell TE	4	0.8	3	2.4%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass TDs	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs DEN	2	Over	1.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs ARI	4	Over	1.5	54 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIA	2	Over	1.5	44 (85%)
2026-09-10	1	@ LA	3	Over	1.5	65 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ SEA	0	Under	1.5	51 (85%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ PHI	2	Over	1.5	59 (100%)
2026-01-03	18	vs SEA	0	Under	0.5	42 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs CHI	3	Over	2.5	72 (100%)
2025-12-22	16	@ IND	5	Over	4.5	63 (95%)
2025-12-14	15	vs TEN	3	Over	3.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CLE	1	Under	1.5	63 (94%)
2025-11-24	12	vs CAR	1	Under	1.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ ARI	3	Over	1.5	50 (91%)
2025-09-28	4	vs JAX	2	Over	2.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	@ SEA	2	Over	1.5	76 (100%)
2024-12-30	17	vs DET	3	Over	—	59 (92%)
2024-12-22	16	@ MIA	2	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-12	15	vs LA	0	Under	—	54 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	vs CHI	2	Over	—	57 (93%)
2024-12-01	13	@ BUF	0	Under	—	48 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.