NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jared Goff QB

DET vs ARI · Sun Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET

2.5 Pass TDs O +145U -186

Hit rate · Last 20 30%6/20 Odds imply 38.6% Over

Season avg: 2.2
Graph avg: 2.1
Graph median: 2.01–5
Over the close: 37%7/19

2026 per game

Pass Yds303.5▲+35.0

Att40.2▲+6.2

Cmp%67.7%▼-0.3

Pass TD2.2▲+0.2

INT0.0▼-0.5

Rush Yds3.8▲+1.1

Snaps69.5▲+5.8

Snap %100.0%▲+1.5

2025

5

Sep 14
1

Sep 22
2

Sep 28
3

Oct 05
2

Oct 12
1

Oct 20
2

Nov 02
3

Nov 09
1

Nov 16
2

Nov 23
2

Nov 27
1

Dec 04
3

Dec 14
3

Dec 21
1

Dec 25
1

Jan 04
2026

2

Sep 13
4

Sep 17
2

Sep 27
1

Oct 04
?

Oct 11

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 30% 6/20 · avg 2.2
Away 37% 7/19 · avg 1.9
vs ARI 0% 0/1 · avg 2.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 100% 20/20
O 1.5 65% 13/20
O 2.5 Today 30% 6/20
O 3.5 10% 2/20
O 4.5 5% 1/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds251.1#5
Yds/Att8.2#3
Cmp%66.2%#8
Pass TD2.6#1
Pass Att30.8#22

QBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main QB who faced ARI this season: pass tds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.8

Avg diff %+36%

Beat their average50% (1/2)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Sep 27	Brock Purdy	4	2.3	+71%
Sep 13	Justin Herbert	1	1.0	+0%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DET offense

DET offense: Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%14.8 yds	6%15.0 yds	5%14.2 yds
Short	29%5.2 yds	26%8.9 yds	29%5.6 yds

Share of DET pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.7 yds#4	4%13.3 yds#21	10%12.1 yds#11
Short	31%5.7 yds#19	18%8.6 yds#6	31%7.4 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%14.8 yds	6%15.0 yds	5%14.2 yds
Short	30%5.2 yds	26%9.0 yds	29%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of DET targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	4	11.5	46	29.4%
2	Sam LaPorta TE	4	8.0	32	19.3%
3	Jahmyr Gibbs RB	4	7.0	28	18.4%
4	Jameson Williams WR	4	6.2	25	15.5%
5	Isaac TeSlaa WR	4	4.2	17	10.3%
6	Brock Wright TE	4	1.2	5	3.2%
7	Jackson Meeks WR	1	1.0	1	3.2%
8	Sione Vaki RB	4	1.2	5	3.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass TDs	vs 2.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ CAR	1	Under	1.5	71 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NYJ	2	Under	2.5	65 (100%)
2026-09-17	2	@ BUF	4	Over	1.5	65 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs NO	2	Under	1.5	77 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CHI	1	Under	1.5	73 (100%)
2025-12-25	17	@ MIN	1	Under	1.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs PIT	3	Over	1.5	74 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ LA	3	Over	3.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-04	14	vs DAL	1	Under	1.5	62 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	vs GB	2	Under	—	63 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYG	2	Under	2.5	68 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PHI	1	Under	1.5	59 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ WAS	3	Over	3.5	61 (87%)
2025-11-02	9	vs MIN	2	Under	1.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-20	7	vs TB	1	Under	1.5	68 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ KC	2	Under	2.5	54 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CIN	3	Over	2.5	62 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CLE	2	Under	1.5	56 (93%)
2025-09-22	3	@ BAL	1	Under	1.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CHI	5	Over	3.5	56 (95%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 1.5PrizePicks 2

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 14m ago.