NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Josh Allen QB

BUF vs LV · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

0.5 INTs O -107U -119

Hit rate · All 38%16/42 Odds imply 48.8% Over

Season avg: 0.8
Graph avg: 0.5
Graph median: 0.00–2
Over the close: 44%10/23

2026 per game

Pass Yds249.8▲+15.1

Att27.6▼-2.1

Cmp%65.9%▼-3.7

Pass TD1.4▼-0.2

INT0.8▲+0.1

Rush Yds47.8▲+10.1

Snaps64.2▼-1.0

Snap %100.0%▲+1.9

0.5

2024

0

Sep 23
0

Sep 29
0

Oct 06
0

Oct 14
0

Oct 20
1

Oct 27
1

Nov 03
2

Nov 10
1

Nov 17
0

Dec 01
0

Dec 08
0

Dec 15
1

Dec 22
0

Dec 29
0

Jan 12
0

Jan 19
0

Jan 26
2025

0

Sep 07
0

Sep 14
0

Sep 18
1

Sep 28
1

Oct 05
2

Oct 13
0

Oct 26
0

Nov 02
1

Nov 09
2

Nov 16
2

Nov 20
1

Nov 30
0

Dec 07
0

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
0

Dec 28
0

Jan 11
2

Jan 17
2026

0

Sep 13
0

Sep 17
2

Sep 27
1

Oct 04
1

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Showing the latest 40 of 42 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 0.5

Home 38% 8/21 · avg 0.5
Away 38% 8/21 · avg 0.6
vs LV No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 Today 38% 16/42
O 1.5 14% 6/42
O 2.5 0% 0/42

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LV

What LV allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds222.6#19
Yds/Att7.1#14
Cmp%67.0%#4
Pass TD1.5#17
Pass Att31.2#24

QBs vs LV · 2026

Each main QB who faced LV this season: ints in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.3

Avg diff %-21%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Drake Maye	0	1.8	-100%
Oct 04	Patrick Mahomes	0	0.7	-100%
Sep 27	Tyler Shough	1	1.0	+0%
Sep 20	Justin Herbert	2	1.2	+60%
Sep 13	Malik Willis	1	0.8	+33%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%17.5 yds	5%17.6 yds
Short	30%7.7 yds	13%8.6 yds	36%6.0 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%15.1 yds#4	4%12.0 yds#27	6%10.1 yds#21
Short	35%5.7 yds#18	15%6.6 yds#18	30%5.2 yds#20

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.5 yds	8%17.8 yds	7%14.8 yds
Short	28%7.7 yds	13%8.9 yds	38%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	5	5.2	26	19.5%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	5	4.2	21	15.9%
4	Ty Johnson RB	3	3.3	10	14.8%
5	Keon Coleman WR	5	3.6	18	13.4%
6	Skyler Bell WR	1	2.0	2	11.1%
7	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
8	James Cook RB	5	2.2	11	8.2%
9	Dawson Knox TE	5	1.8	9	7.6%
10	Ray Davis RB	4	0.5	2	2.2%

Game log · 42 games

Date	Wk	Opp	INTs	vs 0.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	@ LA	1	Over	0.5	64 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	1	Over	0.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	2	Over	0.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	0	Under	0.5	74 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	0	Under	0.5	58 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	2	Over	0.5	78 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	0	Under	0.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	0	Under	0.5	76 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	0	Under	0.5	50 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	0	Under	0.5	70 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	0	Under	0.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ PIT	1	Over	1.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-20	12	@ HOU	2	Over	1.5	66 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	2	Over	0.5	56 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	1	Over	0.5	65 (96%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	0	Under	0.5	66 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	0	Under	0.5	52 (83%)
2025-10-13	6	@ ATL	2	Over	0.5	57 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	1	Over	0.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	1	Over	0.5	59 (100%)
2025-09-18	3	vs MIA	0	Under	0.5	60 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ NYJ	0	Under	0.5	65 (87%)
2025-09-07	1	vs BAL	0	Under	0.5	85 (100%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	@ KC	0	Under	—	73 (100%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	vs BAL	0	Under	—	61 (100%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs DEN	0	Under	—	71 (93%)
2024-12-29	17	vs NYJ	0	Under	—	60 (86%)
2024-12-22	16	vs NE	1	Over	—	59 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	@ DET	0	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	@ LA	0	Under	—	60 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	vs SF	0	Under	—	43 (74%)
2024-11-17	11	vs KC	1	Over	—	73 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	@ IND	2	Over	—	73 (99%)
2024-11-03	9	vs MIA	1	Over	—	66 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ SEA	1	Over	—	69 (91%)
2024-10-20	7	vs TEN	0	Under	—	55 (100%)
2024-10-14	6	@ NYJ	0	Under	—	69 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	@ HOU	0	Under	—	60 (98%)
2024-09-29	4	@ BAL	0	Under	—	51 (86%)
2024-09-23	3	vs JAX	0	Under	—	56 (88%)
2024-09-12	2	@ MIA	0	Under	—	41 (91%)
2024-09-08	1	vs ARI	0	Under	—	62 (100%)

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 12m ago.