NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Justin Herbert QB

LAC vs KC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

0.5 INTs O -153U +119

Hit rate · All 50%20/40 Odds imply 57.0% Over

Season avg: 1.4
Graph avg: 0.7
Graph median: 0.50–4
Over the close: 50%11/22

2026 per game

Pass Yds187.4▼-41.2

Att28.6▼-3.3

Cmp%59.4%▼-6.7

Pass TD1.0▼-0.5

INT1.4▲+0.6

Rush Yds28.4▼-4.2

Snaps66.0▲+1.1

Snap %100.0%▲+3.0

0.5

2024

0

Sep 08
1

Sep 15
0

Sep 22
0

Sep 29
0

Oct 13
0

Oct 21
0

Oct 27
0

Nov 03
0

Nov 10
0

Nov 17
0

Nov 25
0

Dec 01
0

Dec 08
1

Dec 15
1

Dec 19
0

Dec 28
0

Jan 05
4

Jan 11
2025

0

Sep 05
0

Sep 15
1

Sep 21
2

Sep 28
1

Oct 05
0

Oct 12
2

Oct 19
1

Oct 23
1

Nov 02
0

Nov 09
1

Nov 16
1

Nov 30
1

Dec 08
1

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
1

Dec 27
0

Jan 11
2026

1

Sep 13
2

Sep 20
1

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
1

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 0.5

Home 60% 12/20 · avg 0.7
Away 40% 8/20 · avg 0.7
vs KC 25% 1/4 · avg 0.2

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 Today 50% 20/40
O 1.5 12% 5/40
O 2.5 2% 1/40

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs KC

What KC allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds216.4#21
Yds/Att6.4#27
Cmp%61.8%#24
Pass TD1.1#27
Pass Att33.8#8

QBs vs KC · 2026

Each main QB who faced KC this season: ints in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.3

Avg diff %+62%

Beat their average100% (4/4)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Kirk Cousins	1	0.8	+33%
Sep 27	Malik Willis	1	0.8	+33%
Sep 20	Daniel Jones	1	0.8	+33%
Sep 14	Bo Nix	1	0.4	+150%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAC offense

LAC offense: Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.7 yds	1%17.0 yds	8%7.0 yds
Short	28%6.3 yds	15%6.2 yds	39%4.6 yds

Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.3 yds#22	4%14.1 yds#20	5%8.0 yds#27
Short	30%5.6 yds#19	14%6.2 yds#24	37%5.3 yds#18

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%14.4 yds	2%13.6 yds	8%7.3 yds
Short	26%7.4 yds	16%6.2 yds	39%4.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of LAC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tre Harris WR	5	5.0	25	18.0%
2	Quentin Johnston WR	4	4.8	19	16.5%
3	David Njoku TE	2	4.0	8	15.0%
4	Ladd McConkey WR	4	4.2	17	14.8%
5	Brenen Thompson WR	1	3.0	3	11.5%
6	Oronde Gadsden II TE	5	3.2	16	11.0%
7	Keaton Mitchell RB	5	2.8	14	10.3%
8	Charlie Kolar TE	3	2.3	7	10.2%
9	Kimani Vidal RB	4	2.0	8	7.1%
10	Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR	3	1.7	5	6.8%

Game log · 40 games

Date	Wk	Opp	INTs	vs 0.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DEN	1	Over	0.5	67 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SEA	2	Over	0.5	71 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ BUF	1	Over	0.5	69 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs LV	2	Over	0.5	68 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ARI	1	Over	0.5	55 (100%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ NE	0	Under	0.5	60 (100%)
2025-12-27	17	vs HOU	1	Over	1.5	63 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DAL	0	Under	0.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ KC	1	Over	1.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-08	14	vs PHI	1	Over	1.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LV	1	Over	0.5	57 (85%)
2025-11-16	11	@ JAX	1	Over	0.5	35 (73%)
2025-11-09	10	vs PIT	0	Under	0.5	73 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ TEN	1	Over	1.5	65 (100%)
2025-10-23	8	vs MIN	1	Over	0.5	73 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs IND	2	Over	2.5	76 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ MIA	0	Under	0.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs WAS	1	Over	0.5	61 (91%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NYG	2	Over	0.5	63 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs DEN	1	Over	0.5	86 (100%)
2025-09-15	2	@ LV	0	Under	0.5	58 (100%)
2025-09-05	1	vs KC	0	Under	0.5	65 (100%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	@ HOU	4	Over	—	56 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	@ LV	0	Under	—	75 (100%)
2024-12-28	17	@ NE	0	Under	—	69 (87%)
2024-12-19	16	vs DEN	1	Over	—	65 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs TB	1	Over	—	51 (98%)
2024-12-08	14	@ KC	0	Under	—	59 (98%)
2024-12-01	13	@ ATL	0	Under	—	46 (100%)
2024-11-25	12	vs BAL	0	Under	—	69 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs CIN	0	Under	—	67 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs TEN	0	Under	—	59 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	@ CLE	0	Under	—	57 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs NO	0	Under	—	66 (100%)
2024-10-21	7	@ ARI	0	Under	—	66 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DEN	0	Under	—	78 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	vs KC	0	Under	—	56 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ PIT	0	Under	—	36 (78%)
2024-09-15	2	@ CAR	1	Over	—	69 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	vs LV	0	Under	—	57 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 15m ago.