NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Sam Darnold QB

SEA vs KC · Sun Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ET

0.5 INTs

Hit rate · Last 20 55%11/20 Odds imply —

Season avg: 1.4
Graph avg: 0.9
Graph median: 1.00–4
Over the close: 44%8/18

2026 per game

Pass Yds206.6▼-29.4

Att29.8▲+1.4

Cmp%60.4%▼-6.3

Pass TD1.4▼-0.1

INT1.4▲+0.7

Rush Yds7.0▲+1.5

Snaps56.0▼-4.6

Snap %82.0%▼-14.2

0.5

2025

0

Oct 12
1

Oct 20
1

Nov 02
1

Nov 09
4

Nov 16
0

Nov 23
0

Nov 30
1

Dec 07
0

Dec 14
2

Dec 18
1

Dec 28
0

Jan 03
0

Jan 17
0

Jan 25
0

Feb 08
2026

0

Sep 09
2

Sep 27
1

Oct 04
2

Oct 11
2

Oct 15
?

Oct 26

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 0.5

Home 54% 12/22 · avg 0.7
Away 52% 11/21 · avg 0.9
vs KC No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 Today 55% 11/20
O 1.5 25% 5/20
O 2.5 5% 1/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs KC

What KC allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds204.8#28
Yds/Att6.1#29
Cmp%60.7%#26
Pass TD0.9#31
Pass Att33.6#13

QBs vs KC · 2026

Each main QB who faced KC this season: ints in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.1

Avg diff %+36%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Justin Herbert	1	1.4	-29%
Oct 04	Kirk Cousins	1	0.8	+25%
Sep 27	Malik Willis	1	0.8	+33%
Sep 20	Daniel Jones	1	1.0	+0%
Sep 14	Bo Nix	1	0.4	+150%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SEA offense

SEA offense: Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%7.0 yds	4%11.5 yds	7%16.4 yds
Short	32%6.3 yds	16%7.5 yds	36%6.2 yds

Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%11.7 yds#12	5%14.2 yds#20	5%4.2 yds#31
Short	27%5.0 yds#27	17%6.2 yds#24	37%4.8 yds#28

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%7.5 yds	4%11.6 yds	8%13.1 yds
Short	33%6.0 yds	16%7.0 yds	35%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of SEA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR	6	11.0	66	35.6%
2	Rashid Shaheed WR	6	4.5	27	14.9%
3	Cooper Kupp WR	6	4.2	25	12.4%
4	AJ Barner TE	6	4.0	24	12.4%
5	Jadarian Price RB	3	2.3	7	7.6%
6	Tory Horton WR	3	3.0	9	7.5%
7	George Holani RB	6	2.0	12	6.5%
8	Emanuel Wilson RB	6	1.3	8	5.6%
9	Elijah Arroyo TE	2	1.0	2	3.8%
10	Brady Russell RB	5	0.6	3	2.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	INTs	vs 0.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	@ DEN	2	Over	0.5	85 (100%)
2026-10-11	5	vs SF	2	Over	0.5	63 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs LAC	1	Over	0.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ WAS	2	Over	0.5	67 (100%)
2026-09-09	1	vs NE	0	Under	0.5	5 (10%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	@ NE	0	Under	0.5	72 (100%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs LA	0	Under	0.5	67 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs SF	0	Under	0.5	47 (89%)
2026-01-03	18	@ SF	0	Under	0.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CAR	1	Over	1.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-18	16	vs LA	2	Over	0.5	68 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs IND	0	Under	0.5	60 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ATL	1	Over	0.5	53 (87%)
2025-11-30	13	vs MIN	0	Under	0.5	64 (96%)
2025-11-23	12	@ TEN	0	Under	0.5	48 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ LA	4	Over	0.5	84 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ARI	1	Over	0.5	56 (90%)
2025-11-02	9	@ WAS	1	Over	—	48 (94%)
2025-10-20	7	vs HOU	1	Over	—	72 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ JAX	0	Under	0.5	55 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 0.5Underdog 0.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 11m ago.