NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Kyler Murray QB

MIN vs IND · Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

1.5 INTs

Hit rate · Last 20 20%4/20 Odds imply —

Season avg: 0.5
Graph avg: 0.7
Graph median: 0.50–2
Over the close: 44%4/9

2026 per game

Pass Yds165.5▼-26.9

Att25.2▼-7.0

Cmp%68.3%-0.0

Pass TD0.5▼-0.7

INT0.5▼-0.1

Rush Yds23.2▼-11.4

Snaps54.8▼-8.9

Snap %79.2%▼-19.5

1.5

2024

1

Oct 21
0

Oct 27
0

Nov 03
0

Nov 10
1

Nov 24
2

Dec 01
2

Dec 08
0

Dec 15
1

Dec 22
2

Dec 28
0

Jan 05
2025

0

Sep 07
1

Sep 14
0

Sep 21
2

Sep 25
0

Oct 05
2026

1

Sep 13
1

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
0

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 14% 2/14 · avg 0.6
Away 17% 2/12 · avg 0.7
vs IND No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 50% 10/20
O 1.5 Today 20% 4/20
O 2.5 0% 0/20
O 3.5 0% 0/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs IND

What IND allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds247.6#7
Yds/Att7.5#7
Cmp%61.9%#23
Pass TD1.6#12
Pass Att32.8#19

QBs vs IND · 2026

Each main QB who faced IND this season: ints in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.4

Avg diff %-67%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Cam Ward	1	0.6	+67%
Oct 11	Aaron Rodgers	0	1.0	-100%
Sep 27	C.J. Stroud	0	0.2	-100%
Sep 20	Patrick Mahomes	0	0.8	-100%
Sep 13	Lamar Jackson	0	0.3	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIN offense

MIN offense: Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%15.9 yds	2%11.2 yds	8%7.5 yds
Short	27%4.8 yds	17%7.4 yds	35%5.5 yds

Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%12.2 yds#11	3%13.7 yds#22	10%11.7 yds#12
Short	30%6.0 yds#12	20%9.2 yds#1	33%5.8 yds#12

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 9 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%12.0 yds	3%7.6 yds	8%10.3 yds
Short	32%4.6 yds	18%7.7 yds	31%4.4 yds

Last 9 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Justin Jefferson WR	4	6.0	24	25.7%
2	Jordan Addison WR	4	5.5	22	22.3%
3	T.J. Hockenson TE	5	5.4	27	20.3%
4	Aaron Jones RB	5	3.6	18	12.6%
5	Gavin Bartholomew TE	2	3.5	7	11.9%
6	Josh Oliver TE	3	1.7	5	7.6%
7	Tai Felton WR	3	2.0	6	7.1%
8	Myles Price WR	5	1.4	7	5.0%
9	Jauan Jennings WR	4	1.2	5	4.7%
10	Ben Yurosek TE	1	1.0	1	3.4%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	INTs	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NO	0	Under	0.5	71 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs MIA	0	Under	0.5	78 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ TB	1	Under	0.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs GB	1	Under	0.5	11 (17%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TEN	0	Under	0.5	65 (96%)
2025-09-25	4	vs SEA	2	Over	0.5	67 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ SF	0	Under	0.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CAR	1	Under	0.5	54 (98%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NO	0	Under	0.5	66 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	vs SF	0	Under	—	60 (92%)
2024-12-28	17	@ LA	2	Over	—	79 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CAR	1	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs NE	0	Under	—	63 (90%)
2024-12-08	14	vs SEA	2	Over	—	71 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	@ MIN	2	Over	—	82 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ SEA	1	Under	—	58 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NYJ	0	Under	—	52 (88%)
2024-11-03	9	vs CHI	0	Under	—	55 (95%)
2024-10-27	8	@ MIA	0	Under	—	66 (100%)
2024-10-21	7	vs LAC	1	Under	—	54 (95%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 14m ago.