NBA Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Pelle Larsson

Heat vs Timberwolves · Wed Oct 21 · 7:30 PM ET

11.5 Pts O -107U -120

Hit rate · Last 5 40%2/5 Odds imply 48.7% Over

Season avg: —
Graph avg: 12.6
Graph median: 10.06.0–24.0

2026-27 per game

Pts—

Reb—

Ast—

3PM—

Stl—

Blk—

Pelle Larsson points by game, oldest to newest, against today’s line of 11.5.

Splits all logged games · over 11.5

Home 49% 17/35 · avg 12.5
Away 40% 14/35 · avg 10.6
vs Timberwolves 0% 0/1 · avg 7.0

Alt lines last 5 · how often Over cleared

O 9.5 60% 3/5
O 10.5 40% 2/5
O 11.5 Today 40% 2/5
O 12.5 40% 2/5
O 13.5 40% 2/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Game log · 5 games

Date	Opp	Pts	vs 11.5	Close
2026-04-14	@ Hornets	6	Under	—
2026-04-10	@ Wizards	24	Over	—
2026-04-09	@ Raptors	10	Under	—
2026-04-07	@ Raptors	7	Under	—
2026-04-04	vs Wizards	16	Over	—

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 11.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: SportsGameOdds box scores. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.