NBA Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Daniel Gafford

Mavericks vs Rockets · Wed Oct 21 · 8:30 PM ET

9.5 Pts O -138U +104

Hit rate · Last 5 40%2/5 Odds imply 54.2% Over

Season avg: —
Graph avg: 12.0
Graph median: 7.07.0–20.0

2026-27 per game

Pts—

Reb—

Ast—

3PM—

Stl—

Blk—

Daniel Gafford points by game, oldest to newest, against today’s line of 9.5.

Splits all logged games · over 9.5

Home 41% 11/27 · avg 10.3
Away 39% 11/28 · avg 8.7
vs Rockets 67% 2/3 · avg 13.0

Alt lines last 5 · how often Over cleared

O 7.5 40% 2/5
O 8.5 40% 2/5
O 9.5 Today 40% 2/5
O 10.5 40% 2/5
O 11.5 40% 2/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Game log · 5 games

Date	Opp	Pts	vs 9.5	Close
2026-04-05	vs Lakers	7	Under	—
2026-04-03	vs Magic	7	Under	—
2026-03-31	@ Bucks	7	Under	—
2026-03-30	vs Timberwolves	19	Over	—
2026-03-23	vs Warriors	20	Over	—

Pick’em lines: Underdog 9.5PrizePicks 10

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: SportsGameOdds box scores. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.