NBA Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Aaron Nesmith

Pacers vs Pelicans · Wed Oct 21 · 8:00 PM ET

2.5 3PM O +122U -160

Hit rate · Last 5 40%2/5 Odds imply 42.3% Over

Season avg: —
Graph avg: 2.6
Graph median: 2.01.0–5.0

2026-27 per game

Pts—

Reb—

Ast—

3PM—

Stl—

Blk—

Aaron Nesmith 3-pointers made by game, oldest to newest, against today’s line of 2.5.

Splits all logged games · over 2.5

Home 37% 7/19 · avg 2.2
Away 50% 13/26 · avg 2.5
vs Pelicans 0% 0/1 · avg 2.0

Alt lines last 5 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 100% 5/5
O 1.5 60% 3/5
O 2.5 Today 40% 2/5
O 3.5 40% 2/5
O 4.5 20% 1/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Game log · 5 games

Date	Opp	3PM	vs 2.5	Close
2026-03-27	vs Clippers	4	Over	—
2026-03-25	vs Lakers	2	Under	—
2026-03-23	@ Magic	5	Over	—
2026-03-21	@ Spurs	1	Under	—
2026-03-18	vs Trail Blazers	1	Under	—

Pick’em lines: Underdog 2.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: SportsGameOdds box scores. Lines: DraftKings, updated 4m ago.