NBA Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Aaron Nesmith

Pacers vs Pelicans · Wed Oct 21 · 8:00 PM ET

3.5 Reb O -160U +120

Hit rate · Last 5 20%1/5 Odds imply 57.5% Over

Season avg: —
Graph avg: 3.4
Graph median: 3.02.0–7.0

2026-27 per game

Pts—

Reb—

Ast—

3PM—

Stl—

Blk—

Aaron Nesmith rebounds by game, oldest to newest, against today’s line of 3.5.

Splits all logged games · over 3.5

Home 68% 13/19 · avg 5.2
Away 35% 9/26 · avg 3.4
vs Pelicans 100% 1/1 · avg 4.0

Alt lines last 5 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 100% 5/5
O 2.5 60% 3/5
O 3.5 Today 20% 1/5
O 4.5 20% 1/5
O 5.5 20% 1/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Game log · 5 games

Date	Opp	Reb	vs 3.5	Close
2026-03-27	vs Clippers	7	Over	—
2026-03-25	vs Lakers	3	Under	—
2026-03-23	@ Magic	2	Under	—
2026-03-21	@ Spurs	2	Under	—
2026-03-18	vs Trail Blazers	3	Under	—

Pick’em lines: Underdog 3.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: SportsGameOdds box scores. Lines: DraftKings, updated 6m ago.